First Principles

Is it possible that the Peter Principle applies to politics also? Is it possible that our elected leaders represent not the best of the best, but the best of the worst? Is that in fact the definition of the better of two evils? Looking at the presidential contenders currently available, can ANYONE really believe that in a nation of 300 million, THIS is the best we can do?

Frankly, absent a political job, most of the candidates couldn't get hired at Burger King. Mitt might be the exception to the rule.

Let us look at two issues: immigration and global warming. First, immigration. If ANY of the supporters of the current immigration bill would spend one day talking to people that actually, legally, immigrated to the United States in the 50s or 60's - like my parents - they would know that those people are overwhelmingly PISSED at the current bill. I have supported immigration since I was old enough to understand it. My parents benefited, as I have, from their presence here. However, they spent years working on getting citizenship. All they/we see now is a large group of people that think they deserve citizenship and their enablers.

If someone broke into a health club and said they just wanted to get fit, does anyone think the club owners would just say "Well of course, here is a membership, on us!"

Bally's reported today that 47 people caught breaking into their facilities would receive free memberships. Police applauded the move as a reasonable accommodation for people that had no where else to turn. Representative Dufus from the local district released a statement calling for police to stop weighing anyone accused of a crime. Bally's stated the memberships were warranted as no one else would sign up for them anymore.....

Global warming: Mars has warmed up about as much as the Earth over the last 20 years. I keep hearing that said in debates about global warming but it seems the only ones listening to it, are those saying it.

Fine, conceded, we are warmer now than 20 years ago. SO WHAT? It doesn't mean anything. Certainly not global catastrophe. I don't care what ANYONE says about climate change UNLESS they can tell me exactly what the impact on PLANT life will be in a warmer world. Because, frankly, we are at the top of the food chain and if warming HELPS the bottom of the food chain, we are going to be much better off.

And, will the people in the developed nations please get a life. Any more egocentric and I am going to start a mirror factory. The carbon footprint of the majority of the people of the world looks like a footprint in the dirt BECAUSE IT IS A FOOTPRINT IN THE DIRT. We can reduce carbon dioxide emissions dramatically if we just eliminated...oh.....4 billion people? You know...the increase in the population over the last 100 years?

We have been having really great weather here the last week or so. I have been able to spend evenings on the deck looking up at the stars. There appear to be about 12 people on the planet like me....do they all think like I do that given the UNIVERSE, we are acting like a bunch of ants?

An Open Letter to Senator Feingold:

Dear Senator:

A long time ago, living in another state, I had the audacity to send a letter to my Senator. Adlai Stevenson was his name. In it, I voiced my opinion on a topic that I disagreed with the Senator on. I received a nice reply, first acknowledging our disagreement, then stating the reasons for his position. He further appreciated that I understood that he represented all of the people of Illinois, not just me or those that disagreed with me. It was a great personal letter, from a great Senator, to a young constituent.

Recently, I sent a similar email to you. We had met in person on Palm Sunday and had a nice, simple conversation. I wanted to let you know that although there were a large number of people in Wisconsin that agreed with many of your positions, particularly on Iraq, that there were constituents that did not agree.

What I received in return about 2 weeks later was a canned response, reproduced and commented on below. A four sentence personal response from you would have taken 1 minute of your precious time. I realize you represent several million people and that you probably receive thousands of emails/letters. Your response to me reminds me of the movie character Scrooged played by Bill Murray and I hope at some time you might have a similar awakening.

Dear Ms. Coyle,

Thank you for contacting me regarding the war in Iraq. I
appreciate hearing from you about one of the most important issues
facing our country today.

Really? Did you even see my email? Did it rise to the top of your staff's list of things to discuss with you during your busy schedule? I doubt it.

I strongly support our troops who have courageously answered the
call to service, but I remain deeply concerned that the President's
policies in Iraq are undermining our top national security priority:
fighting al Qaeda and its affiliates that attacked our country on
September 11, 2001. In October 2002, I voted against the
resolution authorizing the President to use force in Iraq because I
questioned the shifting justifications for this mission and feared
that it would weaken our capacity to combat terrorism.

Sir, your support of our troops is nothing more than lip-service. You fail to understand the nature of their mission. You question their very effort. You ignore the proclamations of the very terrorists you claim to be against. Iraq is the front line on the war on terror. Is there any doubt that terrorists are involved when the vast majority of deaths occurring in Iraq are civilian, caused by car bombs and suicide bombers? By your own words, you have been actively opposed to military involvement in Iraq since 2002. What sir is an appropriate use of our military? For almost 10 years Iraq was shooting at our aircraft patrolling the No-Fly zones with little fear of reprisal. For over 20 years, Iraq murdered it's own citizens. For over 10 years, Iraq manipulated UN sanctions. For over 10 years, Iraq maintained its ability to resume chemical, biological and nuclear programs, waiting for the day sanctions ended. A day that was fast approaching. Finally, Iraq openly supported terrorists in other parts of the world - specifically sending money to the families of suicide bombers in Israel. Iraq had attacked two neighbors in 10 years. A threat sir?

Since the war began, I have repeatedly pressed the Administration
to provide a clear strategy for success in Iraq and a strategy for
defeating the global terrorist networks that threaten the United
States. Unfortunately, the Administration continues to pursue a
misguided and open-ended military mission in Iraq that has
diverted resources and attention from other places around the
world where terrorist networks that threaten the U.S. are operating.
I am deeply concerned by the President's decision in January to
increase troop levels in Iraq, which ignores the wishes of the
American people and members of both parties.

What you have demanded was a program for retreat. There is no "clear strategy for success". Such a childish notion about something as impossible to predict as WAR is beneath your apparent ability or it suggests a level of dis ingeniousness unbecoming a United States Senator. Your characterization that the military mission is "misguided" suggests that you think Iraq would have been better off left alone. What a pleasant prospect for millions of Iraqis.

What other places around the world would you send our troops to Senator? Darfur? Malasyia? Afghanistan? Great Britain? Spain? How about Venezuela? WHERE Senator are terrorist networks threatening the US other than where they stand toe to toe with our soldiers?

Since when should a war be fought using polls? What constitutional section gives the populace operational control over the deployment of the troops? What constitutional section gives the CONGRESS operational control over the deployment of the troops? When do you think it is supporting the troops to demand their retreat, not because they are failing on the battlefield, but because it has become unpopular at home?

NO ONE LIKES WAR. Everyone would like it to end. It ends however not when we leave, but when the enemy surrenders or dies. Taking our troops from Iraq will not end the bloodshed in Iraq, it will only increase it. Taking our troops from Iraq will not placate terrorists, only embolden them. Taking our troops from Iraq and sending them....where? will not strengthen our forces, only demoralize them.

I am working to bring an end to our involvement in this war. I
recently introduced legislation with Senate Majority Leader Harry
Reid (D-NV) and eight other Senators to safely redeploy United
States troops from Iraq. Our bill would require the President to
begin redeploying troops within 120 days and would require
redeployment to be completed by March 31, 2008, with three
narrow exceptions.

Sir, unless you have some ability to negotiate on the behalf of the United States with the terrorists, your efforts to bring an end to our involvement in this war is nothing more than politics, and may be something much more dangerous. Where did you, when did you, introduce legislation calling on the terrorists to stop blowing up children? When were you on the Senate floor calling for Muslims to rise up against fanatics in their religion?

Senator, what is the purpose of our military? Do you even understand their role? Our troops are not supposed to be safe on bases far from battle. They are supposed to be killing those that kill others. They are supposed to be on the front line. And Senator, can you please point out where in the Constitution you and your fellow Senators have any role dictating to the President operational control of troops on the battlefield?

You may also be interested to know that on
April 26, 2007, I voted for H.R. 1591, the fiscal year 2007
emergency supplemental bill. I was pleased that this bill included
binding language that will effectively end the current misguided
military mission in Iraq and require the President to begin
redeploying U.S. troops from Iraq in 120 days. I encourage you to
visit my website for a more detailed account of my work on Iraq at
<http://www.feingold.senate.gov>.

The "misguided military mission". How does this position support the troops? What you apparently mean by support is to protect the little boys and girls from getting hurt by the bad mens killing civilians in Iraq. I am sure the troops are flattered by your compassion. Your efforts on behalf of the civilians in Iraq is equally appreciated by them, I'm sure.

Your continued support is doing more damage to our troops than your ignorance of them, so if you don't mind, please stop supporting the troops. With support like yours, terrorists will soon have an open field in which to ply their trade.

I am also working hard to help ensure effective oversight and
accountability for reconstruction efforts in Iraq. The economic
costs of this war have been staggering, and I am dismayed that we
are running up debts to pay for this war that the next generation of
Americans will be called upon to pay. I continue to push for
accountability and transparency in the use of taxpayer money in
Iraq. I led efforts to create and then extend the life of the Special
Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction (SIGIR), whose office is
charged with making sure that U.S. reconstruction dollars in Iraq
are not subject to waste, fraud or abuse.

Why not spend your time working on effective oversight and accountability for reconstruction efforts in NEW ORLEANS? At least there, we have some control over the land...as you know...it actually belongs to us. How about pushing for accountability and transparency in congressional spending bills?

As a member of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, the
Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, and the Senate
Committee on the Budget, I will continue to work to end our
involvement in this war. Thanks again for contacting me about
this extremely important issue. I look forward to hearing from you
in the future.

As a member of those two important committees, I am concerned that your stated positions are doing more to undermine our country than help it. I am sure you believe you are acting responsibly and in a manner you think is consistent with the best interests of this country. But if your response to my email is any indication, you are as impotent as the rest of the political class. Frankly, I would appreciate your actions be more consistent with the senior Senator of Wisconsin: you know, more seen, less heard Kohl.

Oh, I am sure you will not be looking forward to any more missives from me.

Not so sincerely this time,
Tracy Coyle
Madison, WI

Gun Deaths

I generally have ignored the VT murders. I don't know anyone that attends the campus; I live almost 1,000 miles away from it. It has no real impact on my life. But I am not a hermit. I read a comment on a blog post comparing the death rate from guns in Australia and the US. The commenter noted the countries are very similar in many cultural ways but that we had twice as many deaths from guns. Why she wondered.

I thought about race. I had a stereotype in my head that blacks died as a result of guns in much higher proportions than whites. I went in search of evidence to support my stereotype. And found it...but in looking at the page I found, there was something else MUCH MORE STARTLING.

55% of gun deaths in 2004....were suicides. 25% of those under 18 and 74% of those over 40 were suicides. The vast majority were white men. It appears that if a gun is in the house, the more likely event is that the man is going to use it to kill himself.

I am a street thug...

Victoria informed me this morning that some people believe that plans are in place for the simultaneous denotation of seven nukes on American soil. We discussed what cities would be targets (my picks: NY, LA, SF, DC, Chicago, Kansas City and Atlanta - that covers ports, financial markets, telecommunications and government) She asked where I would want to "ride them out" and suggested right here is fine....unless Minneapolis is targeted, we are upwind from the closest strike in Chicago.

I also suggested to her that Islam as a religion would be in jeopardy and that Mecca would glow for centuries. I said that people like me would seek out Moslems for destruction. I thought, did not say then, but do here, that if such an attack occured, I will be one of those street thugs that physically attacks any "peace" activists or "anti-war" protesters.

Consider me to have jumped the shark if you will ...

Reality has left the building...

I listen to Rush and Hannity. I listen to Air America. I am pretty sure the two groups are living on different planets...or at least in different universes.

I look at the housing market - mortgage lenders folding like chairs after a public hearing - and the steady increase in foreclosures; I look at the words coming out of people that watch the stock markets for a living and markets that apparently have no connection to those pundits.

I think of a dozen or so candidates for President that have raised over $125 million in the last
three months for their bids and the 70% increase in bankruptcy filings.

I see AG Gonzo testify before Congress and wonder, did he not know he was going to be testifying? I heard he was preparing for his testimony but they had to have been talking about someone else...cause that pod talking yesterday made less sense than an Elmo doll with a broken string.

I hear Harry Reid say that we have lost the war, when the only shots we seem to be firing are coming from some deranged idiot in Virginia.

Am I the only one caught in some reality vortex, unaffected but able to view the shifting, twisting, contradictory realities?

Or is the world actually just fine and I have lost my mind?

Iraq Derangement Syndrome

Heard an hour ago on Air America on the possible reasons for the VT killer's rampage:

The Iraq war has driven all of us insane.

Yep....the Iraq war drove the VT killer to kill 32 and wound dozens more.

Gun Question

Here it is: If a student at VT had pulled a gun out and killed the killer of 32 after he had killed only 4, would he be a hero, or arrested for having a gun on campus?

Thousands are killed by drunk drivers every year....is anyone contemplating additional restrictions on drinking or driving? Say life in prison for a 2nd DUI? Or requiring the breathalizer equipment be installed on every vehicle?

Just asking...

New rights

Can anyone tell me when the Right Not to be Offended was written into some law? Because, I really need to know what the penalties are...."don't do the crime if you can't do the time" and all.

Everyone claiming Imus was an ass are 1) not saying anything new, and 2) need to grow up. "Mommy, he made fun of me. He called me a NAME...." whiners.

Stinkin culture

Name one country other than the United States that if it ceased to exist today, would be missed tomorrow.

Moderate + Mainstream

I am right of center....fiscally. I am left of center....socially.

I believe that government is the worst use of our money. It is a necessary evil with regard to those things it was originally empowered to do. It has however, stepped into many things it does not belong in. The less money it has, the less meddling it does.

I am pro-abortion...for the first two trimesters....then opposed on virtually any grounds.

I am against a single-payer medical system. I have family in England and I have had medical care in Canada. Talk to the average person in either country and they will literally spit their hatred of their medical systems. I am willing to support a government program of vouchers for medical care AND schools.

I am pro-education, but anti-teachers unions. One of the worst features of our educational system is tenure. It should be abolished. I am opposed to unions in general. My father was a shop steward. In Chicago. I have seen first hand the terrible toll unions can inflict on workers and businesses.

I am pro-military. I served, my father served, my brother served (and retired from) and my nephew is currently serving. My support is total. (Did I support the actions inAbu-Grab, no, don't be stupid)

I am pro-1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and so on amendment rights. I am anti-ACLU.

My positions are MODERATE. They are shared by the VAST majority of Americans.

However, our media - all of it - has reached a point where people on the left can not tell a moderate liberal position and where people on the right can not tell a moderate conservative position. Increasingly, the only voices you hear on TV, cable or radio are absolute conservatives and absolute liberals. I chose the adjective absolute instead of far-left/right because someone doesn't have to be far-either to be an absolutist. Victoria holds virtually no conservative positions (I have just sat here for 5 minutes to try and think of one with no luck) but I wouldn't call her far-left.

It has become "normal" for the far-right/left to eat their own. Code Pink camping out on Pelosi's stoop? Air American couldn't espouse a moderate position if it's life depended on it. Ann Coulter has become a parody of herself. The religious right sees Satan in every picture/video/liberal.

People are tuning out media. Networks are losing viewers (they are not going to cable); newspapers are dead - momentum is all they have going for them right now. The average radio or cable show has a couple million listeners/viewers....many shared. (The Air America crowd watchesOberman, the Rush crowd watches O'Reilly)

People of good intentions on the left get shouted down by the right because if the right gives an inch, the left takes a mile. People of good intentions on the right get shouted down by the left because if the left gives an inch, the right takes a mile. No one wants to give the left/right any more ammunition than they already have so the moderates shut up and leave the field to the fringe - now called "mainstream"

Rush has said that moderates do not get anything done. Only those that take a stand firmly Conservative(Liberal) accomplish great things. He might be right about great things, but every day, every where, moderates stock theWalMart shelves, deliver the gas to the stations, serve in our military and serve in the soup kitchens.

I am proud to be a moderate. Someday, we might even elect one.

Top Picks - Science Fiction

My top picks for Science Fiction, book

1. Battlefield Earth, by L. Ron Hubbard (say whatever you want about Scientology, the book is a first rate read)

2 Jumper by Stephen Gould. I spent months after first reading it thinking about what I would do! I decided to re-read it!

3. White Wing, by Gordon Kendall. A complete surprise and worth packing in your favorite suitcase after reading it...because it is worth reading every time.

4. Ender's Game, by Orson Scott Card. I didn't know, til Ender did and easily the best of the series.

5. There are two series, any one from which is a top five:
Sten series (8 books) by Chris Bunch and Alan Cole, I still tell the jokes.
Honor Harrington series (10? books) by David Weber. Is it luck if you pick the right club, call the shot, land it exactly, and sink it from 100 yds?


I just finished reading Old Man's War based on a blog recommendation and it is already a top ten. After another read sometime late this year, it will probably move up some.

Mortgage Fraud

One of the questions swirling around bankruptcy attorney circles is: where is the fraud?

We are seeing people facing mortgages where the monthly payments are increasing 40% or more in a 2-2.5 year period. Chapter 13 bankruptcy trustees are beginning to require proposed plans deal with the mortgage payments at their highest possible level rather than what the loan currently calls for.

It started me thinking. Everyone (that supported bankruptcy reform) is going blame the consumer for agreeing to mortgages that they had no chance of ever repaying. The consumer is going to blame the mortgage originator that told them they could refinance before the adjustments started. The mortgage originators are going to offer, the consumer knew the risks...of course, we are watching mortgage lenders flee the scene like cockroaches.

A typical bond is sold based on the interest rate earned. Because the rate of the bond is fixed, as interest rates move, the price moves inversely. Mortgage back securities (MBS) operate in a generally similar way. Although there are many more factors and risks involved, the issue is "what is the rate of return"?

For a good overview of the MBS market, check out this Fannie Mae page.

That said, let me share some numbers.
A $200,000 loan, 3/27 ARM, initial rate 8.5%, index 9.5%+LIBOR, 6 month adj, 11.5% initial cap, initial monthly payment $1,537.83.

Based on current LIBOR, if this loan was issued in 2004(it was), then on Jan 1, 2009, the payment will be $2,401.51, a 56% increase. This does not include any amounts for, or changes in, property taxes or insurance.

If the loan goes to maturity, the effective rate over the term would be 10.48%
Ignoring all the risk factors, what would the basis for purchase price of this loan be?
The 10.48% yield?
The 8.5% initial yield?
The 9.52% index yield?

Assuming a Fannie Mae MBS was priced to yield 6.5% on a pool of 1000 of these?

Value of 10.48% yield $322,557.53 x 1000
Value of 8.5% yield $261,538.46 x 1000
Value of 9.52% yield $292,923.08 x 1000

If I borrowed $2,000,000 from you at 5.5% and loaned it to 10 people at the 3/27 ARM rate indicated. The potential profit on reselling the loans in 90-120 days is enormous. Of course defaults and early repayments seriously affect yields...so as a buyer of the MBS, I might be a little miffed if the underlying loans crash and burn.

The scenario I see unfolding (originally) is that as more money is made, it chases more and more potential loans with huge index spreads...this would drive DOWN the initial interest rates as lenders compete. As the market begins to crash (when there are no more people obtaining loans (you have already dreged the bottom), then the interest rates are going to climb to ...the index yield, 9.52%, at least.

What happens to a bond price when the interest rate climbs 3000 basis points?

Care to answer Fannie Mae? Chairman Bernanke?

There may be no interest rate acceptable to the market for these securities. If that happens, the MBS market will crash and the largest holder of MBS is Fannie Mae.

Bernanke may have no good options to deal with the situation. Large banks and securities firms will have no choice but to purchase the MBS originators at losses to protect their own positions as large scale bankruptcies would all but eliminate funding for the MANY hundreds of billions of loans resetting with millions of borrowers unable to qualify for a standard loan.

Let me be a scare-monger. It is possible that as many as 90% of ARMs sold in the last 2-3 years will default eventually.

And who do you think will be blamed?

Lying

I want to say something about lying. It seems to be happening more frequently.

People are getting up in front of cameras and opening their mouths and what is coming out is so blatantly a lie that you'd expect everyone to audibly gasp. But it doesn't happen. No one calls them on their lie. No one questions their lie. Lies. Flat out, clear cut, lies.

My problem is that EVERYONE lies a little. For a long time I tried really hard to either tell the truth or shut up. But little things happen: the boss is in but doesn't want to talk to someone "sorry, not available". I am pretty good at avoiding big lies...one of the reasons people tend to ask me for my opinion is they trust what comes out, even if they don't like what they hear.

We expect politicians to lie. It is part of the job description. Still, John Edwards talks about two Americas while building a 28,000 sq ft mansion; Al Gore talks about global warming while flying in private jets; the war on drugs is apparently now the war on those fighting drugs; "we support the troops"; Sandy Berger forgot about the documents in his underwear; Libby was covering for Cheney; Joe Wilson was set up;

Don't get me started on American Idol or the Oscars...

We are well down a spiraling slide of dishonesty...and I can't see anyway to stop it.

Seethuma

Research in this country is in serious need of assistance. If you believe that basic research needs more attention and you have a research bankground, I would be interested in your opinions. By invitation only.

Blog Talk Radio

A new service is available for just about anyone to host their own podcast/radio show. I will be hosting my first show today at 9:30 central. Tune in live (call in is available) or listen later!

Ketsup or Catch Up

Global Defrosting

Can someone tell me what is the correct average mean temperature for Earth? Come on, anyone? I mean, if EVERYONE believes that the Earth is getting warmer, then they should know if that is a good thing or not. Right? Just because the Earth is getting warmer in and of itself doesn't mean anything good or bad. No?

If the average mean temperature of Earth should be 4 degrees higher than it is now, then the warming is a good thing and we should help accelerate it! If it is 4 degrees lower than it is now, then we need to kill off about 4 billion people to turn the tide...anything else would be throwing ice cubes at a bonfire.

I would like to offer a different way of thinking about the rising temperature, from on now, I am going to call it global defrosting

ALERT - Vehicle Repossession in Wisconsin

A major change in Wisconsin law now allows auto loan lenders to repossess a vehicle 15 days after a notice of default has been sent (there is some question about it being 15 days from receipt of the notice but that has not been tested).

If you are someone that does not open bills until you can pay them, you might have a notice stating your are in default. You could walk out your door and find your vehicle gone with little recourse.

This is called self-help repossession and is VERY different from the previous requirement to obtain a judicial judgment.

Is this the party you want?

I know bankruptcy reform gets a lot of support from conservatives espousing personal responsibility but what happens when someone is irresponsible (of just plain stupid) and ends up with enough debt to choke a horse? Debtor's prison? The Republicans have become a special interest group for corporate interests. I do not mean that in the same sense that the looney left states it, but what is good for GM is NOT necessarily good for America anymore, as Toyota is teaching many former union workers.

Immigration helps this country in dozens of ways and as the first born of immigrants, I STRONGLY support immigration. The pandering...no, the selling out of America to ILLEGAL immigrants is as bad as selling out the troops. I don't understand why Bush and the Republicans can't see that.

How many people that complained about people like me in November (that refused to vote Republican because of their behavior despite disliking everything about the Democrats) are watching in abject horror at Republicans defecting on the GWOT, taxes, minimum wage, immigration?

The political class...oh wait, there is not supposed to be a political class....needs to be sent packing and if the current behavior doesn't encourage more of the base to leave Republican politicians flapping in the wind, then we have truly lost the base.

The Pledge

If the United States Senate passes a resolution, non-binding or otherwise, that criticizes the commitment of additional troops to Iraq that General Petraeus has asked for and that the president has pledged, and if the Senate does so after the testimony of General Petraeus on January 23 that such a resolution will be an encouragement to the enemy, I will not contribute to any Republican senator who voted for the resolution. Further, if any Republican senator who votes for such a resolution is a candidate for re-election in 2008, I will not contribute to the National Republican Senatorial Committee unless the Chairman of that Committee, Senator Ensign, commits in writing that none of the funds of the NRSC will go to support the re-election of any senator supporting the non-binding resolution.

If you agree or support this pledge, please join in signing it here

The Crusades

Recently read a post about the potential of Al Gore getting involved in the 2008 Presidential race. Also, so talk of Newt doing so. My one and only response at this time to such?

To the Rescue: The Knights in Tarnished Armor.