Housing prices

To my friend Tom Blumer at Bizzyblog: Tom, the numbers, they be a lyin' to ya.

Friends are trying to sell their house, two doors up, one street over. The house next to them, same style, size, one year newer, but without landscaping, sold for 315k last summer. Our friends had their home on the market for 3 months at 280k...no buyers, two lookers. They put it with a realtor, bumped the price up, had an open house, no one came. Two months with the broker, one showing. That house is only in the stats since going with the realtor, and the price they're asking represents a profit (not a big one) but it will not sell there, apparently.

A single example? Too close to the forest....maybe? But we do see people every week in trouble. Client bought house in 03. Lost job in late 06. Purchase: 157k On market for 165k, no buyers or lookers. Bankruptcy filing, trustee took house on condition (approved by court and mortgage lender that he would list it for NO MORE than 144k - he listed it for 147k). Owed 121k to lender. One offer, 120k, trustee countered at 135k, no deal. House is back in lenders hands.

Prices reported are for homes sold. The backlog represents a dangerous truth. Prices are going to continue down, alot, for a long time. And it is not because the market has been talked down, credit has dried up for the majority of people. Clients that recently lost their house had a $2500 a month mortgage payment, their GROSS income was 32k a year, and has been for at least 3 years? How did they get such a loan?

If your credit score is above 670, have a good payment history and at least 10, but preferrable 20% down, loans are available and rates are great. If your score is under 640, forget a loan unless you are putting down 30% or more. That is from a local broker. For the moment, subprime is dead, and that means a lot of people will not be able to buy, or refinance.

Something read: only a first time home buyer takes a home off the market. Otherwise, every buyer of a home, is selling a home.

I'm sorry, did I miss something?

Apparently, two banks from OTHER countries, have been authorized to borrow money from the United States Federal Reserve System. I realize we don't have a central bank like most countries, and that in general, the Fed is in fact private, however....

Just because those banks invested in our private individuals mortgages, does not mean our banking system needs to bail them out.....right??

Contract

Can anyone that reads this blog please tell me why, when faced with signing a contract with 30 or more pages of fine print, the vast majority of people in Wisconsin won't even bother to have an attorney LOOK at it????

Oh, and why do Real Estate Agents NOT recommend an attorney for every single one of their clients buying and selling a home??

An independent voice..

I was one of many voices (though quite alone in this area) that suggested a loss for Republicans in the last election would not be a bad thing. I also suggested that Republicans could sit out the 2006 elections given the lack of quality Republican candidates running.

I have also clearly stated that I consider myself an independent, that I no longer considered myself Republican.

That said, it would be a mistake for anyone to believe that I think not voting in 2008 was a good idea, or that voting for a democrat was also a good idea.

The next President will nominate one or more supreme court justices. Time for Republicans to understand that with the exception of the GWOT, no other issue is as important for conservatives than the nomination of supreme court justices like Roberts and Alito.

I will be voting Republican in 2008 and so should every conservative.

On a similar note...

If America is the evil empire of the left, can they point to a non-evil empire that they want America to aspire to?

Stupidity

For most of my adult life I have tried to understand opposing viewpoints. Think about it. Reasonable people can come to different conclusions about various topics despite viewing the same information.

However, it is becoming increasingly difficult to understand the stupidity of the far left. It is clear they either refuse to acknowledge information/facts that undercut their position, or they believe any information/facts that undercut their position are false regardless of the source.

Commentary and discussion about General Sanchez's speech to a room full of reporters where he absolutely blasted the media. Headlines however only note his relatively short blast at Bush.

ht: My Pet Jawa

Repubican Debate - #2

You can be a Republican and be against the war, however, you can NOT be a Republican Presidential Candidate and be against the war.

Ron Paul, yes, that means you. Please exit, stage left.

Republican Debate

I have finally watched a debate. If you are so inclined, there are discussions and comments on two of my favorite sites, Powerline and Townhall.

One of the things noted was online polls of Republican debates are heavily influenced by Ron Paul supporters. Frankly, those polls reminded me of something...

Do you think Ron Paul and Sanjai are related?

Western Values

I am going to do something I seldom do....link:

The debate motion: We should not be reluctant to assert the superiority of Western values.

When : 6:45pm at Royal Geographical Society, London.

Ok, no one here would have been able to make it, but what makes this interesting is that it is even a matter of debate! No, I mean, it is great that someone doesn't automatically dismiss the idea that Western values ARE SUPERIOR!

What was great was that voting after the debate indicated over 60% voted for the motion!

ht: Little Green Footballs

The 2nd Amendment

First, let me state: I do not own a gun - that could kill or even bruise someone.

Second, if I want a gun, I want to be able to have a gun.

Why?

To make sure that I can shoot anyone who thinks I should not have a gun...especially if they are "from the government and are here to help..."

Bankruptcy Reform Act

From 1998 until 2005, the lending industry complained that bankruptcy laws needed changing because consumers were being allowed to game the system: run up large credit debts and then discharge them in bankruptcy. Consumers were described as deadbeats, irresponsible, and in a few cases, 'thieves'.

Well, the Bankruptcy Reform Act (BARF for those of us in the biz) passed in 2005 with a fair amount of publicity over the resulting wave of bankruptcy filings...some 2 million filed that year, a 33% increase over the year before. Many people predicted what would happen after the law passed and in large part, they were right. Let's look at a few.

Credit counseling was mandated but considered a waste of time, a burden on consumers and a boon for the credit counseling industry - an industry supported by their parasitic relationship with lenders. Reports have shown that the credit counseling has been of no particular use. 97% of consumers taking the counseling had no means to repay any of their debt (study from earlier in 2006) yet almost 40% actually filed chapter 13...meaning they tried anyway. Some have noted that as many as 10% that have taken the counseling did not file, meaning that the counseling helped them in some other way. There is no evidence that those that did not file entered into alternative debt management programs. It is equally possible - I might suggest considerably more likely - that they simply could not AFFORD to file bankruptcy due to the increased costs. The credit counseling industry did benefit by getting many, many new clients, but they are overburdened by the flood of people paying a small fee (small in relationship to their claimed costs).

Means test: This has been a disaster. This was supposed to be a bright line test to determine the potential for a debtor to repay debts. More than 85% of filers pass the means test - they have insufficient income to repay debts, BUT, almost 40% of debtors are filing chapter 13s!

Early last year, less than 6 months after passage of a 'perfect' bill requiring no amendments, Congress amended the law to allow charitable contributions into the means test...leading the way was Senator Hatch....consigliere of the original bill. Further, there have been complaints that the test lets debtors with high secured debts off the hook. It is true, the more secured debt you have, the less you will end up paying to unsecured creditors (the main supporters of the reform). The means test has led to many interesting outcomes, including a ruling that a family with over $2500 a month in disposable income needed only to pay $1500 a month as specified by the means test.

Filings would go down: Duh. For the three months after the law went into effect, filings were minimal compared to previous years. Many that would have filed anyway in 06, filed before the law changed. But filings have steadily increased. Even with increased costs, document burdens and longer preparation times, filings have already reached levels seen in 2000/2001 with no indication that they are leveling off. The current rate of increase, if maintained, will find filings near pre-BARF levels by the end of next year. There is still a strong perception that bankruptcy is no longer available...as that perception wears off, filings will grow faster.

Those that need bankruptcy will still be able to file: Many attorneys that filed bankruptcies before, have stopped. Fees have double in almost all areas (higher in some) and the filing fees and counseling fees have added to the burden of those least able to afford it. Too broke to go broke. Fewer attorneys, higher fees, higher costs, heavier burdens. This has fallen dis proportionally on those least able to afford it. It appears that 90% of bankruptcy filers are BELOW their states median income. The drop off in filings are right in this group.

Lenders would reduce interest rates: HA, HAHAHA, have you seen any reduction? Proponents said that easy bankruptcy added $400 to the cost of everyone. Apparently, only the lenders have benefited from the 'reduction' in this cost as across the board, profits have never been higher...except....

now. Foreclosures, defaults on mortgages, are creaming lenders. Bankruptcy might help debtors keep their homes and default on less mortgages, but bankruptcy is less available and those lenders involved in mortgages also are getting hammered. Many will file bankruptcy, because you see...the Reform Act of 2005, all but ignored Chapter 11 changes...

Welcome to the bankruptcy court lenders....attorney fees are paid first....

Speaking Truth to Power

There has been a lot written about the President of Columbia's speech calling the President of Iran a 'petty and cruel dictator' as speaking truth to power. Frankly, that's crap. When you speak truth to power, it is to it's face. Stupid though they may be, the protesters that stand up in Congress or at press conferences and call out their targets are speaking to power - I don't always agree they are speaking truth however - are living examples of the consequences our Founding Fathers knew all too well. Speaking truth to power has consequences, and absent those actual or potential consequences, what you get is a President of Columbia University jabbering like an adult in a Peanut's sketch.

THIS is speaking truth to power.

A show of support

Charlie Schutze is running for a position on the Supreme Court of Wisconsin. I support his run.

Charlie's website is here . I have known Charlie for a number of years as his law practice and Victoria's have considerable overlap. I have also occasionally done administrative work for him. I have found him to be considerate and dedicated to his family, clients, staff and community.

Daily, sole practitioner attorneys often provide the type of legal assistance to the public that larger firms tout as their pro bono work. Unlike attorneys in large firms that 'specialize' in particular fields, sole practitioners have to be experienced in the broad range of issues facing individuals, families and small businesses today. A sole practitioner might have a father seeking custody, a wife seeking a divorce, someone seeking help dealing with a DUI, long time clients getting estate planning, couples buying or selling a home and a parent accused of neglect. Experience dealing with the many facets of the legal world is exactly the type of experience we need in judges.

Charlie's opponent was appointed to the position and has created a mess with opinions based not in law but in outcome. And, after the debacle of the last election (our most recent addition to the Supreme Court is facing serious ethics charges - raised during the run-up to the election but apparently ignored - that may cost her the seat she spent over a million dollars trying to win), we need someone that is not beholden to either the trial lawyers nor the corporations that donated millions to the election of a judge.

Please consider him as we move towards election day.

And now a word about marriage

I am not prone to sharing links with people. I offer my opinion either on other sites or here. Linking is supposed to be the currency of the blogssphere and frankly, I seem to be one of the skinflints.

Most of you know that I am a conservative, especially in matters financial. Also, as many of you know, I am agnostic and in a long term lesbian relationship (14 years this Thanksgiving). This means that in some matters, I diverge from 'traditional' republican views. One of those is gay marriage. I am opposed to government getting involved in marriage. If the government is going to license the union of two adults, then discrimination is inappropriate. Marriage, as most view it, is a religious rite. I think churches and religions can make whatever rules they want about marriage and unions and the state should keep it's nose out of it. So, I have stood for civil unions, as long as everyone has a civil union and that 'contract' is the basis for government actions (property, custody, taxes....etc). We are not getting there.

The Mayor of San Diego made an announcement recently. After running against gay marriage, he was handed a resolution supporting it. Here was his press conference concerning his decision . I agree with him....please consider your own positions.

Saudi ....duplicity?

Is there any real reason to be friends with Saudi Arabia? I know all the conspiracy kooks that claim Bush is bought and paid for...but have we been bought and paid for?

I think I am going to renew a request to turn Mecca into glass...

But, sometimes I can get the first word...

Some pinheads in Iran have issued 10 questions for Lee Bollinger of Columbia University. I take my shot at answering them. One comment to start. Peoples in the Middle East (and many other places) expect respect and hospitality for guests. Bollinger was insulting, regardless of what he may actually have meant or said, the Middle East will consider his behavior very, very insulting. Good.

The questions:

1- Why did the US media put you under so much pressure to prevent Mr. Ahmadinejad from delivering his speech at Columbia University? And why have American TV networks been broadcasting hours of news reports insulting our president while refusing to allow him the opportunity to respond? Is this not against the principle of freedom of speech?

First, because Mr. Ahmadinejad has insulted the United States repeatedly in the past. First as a ringleader in the unlawful kidnapping of Americans and holding them hostage in 1979-1980. Then, as a leader of a country that is actively supplying material assistance to terrorists in Iraq. Such a platform as a University is well above the respect that should be granted such a despicable person. Mr. Ahmadinejad had an opportunity to speak after Mr. Bollinger, that is all that was offered. No media outlet is required to carry opposing viewpoints or be forced to grant Mr. Ahmadinejad additional broadcast time because he wants it. He can purchase the time if he so chooses. THAT is free speech....you get what you pay for.


2- Why, in 1953, did the US administration overthrow the Iran's national government under Dr Mohammad Mosaddegh and go on to support the Shah's dictatorship?

As I was quick to bring up the past, let me offer an opinion here also. In 1952 and 53, Dr. Mosaddegh was rapidly approaching the communist principles supported by and encouraged by the Soviet Union. Such principles were a direct threat to the United States and given the geographic location of Iran, a security threat to oil supplies. Such a turn towards communism was simply not allowable. The choice was not made easily, nor accomplished well, but the result speaks for itself. Communism was/is a dangerous political/economic system both for the world in general and for the people suffering under it specifically. I am not suggesting the Iranian people were better off under the Shah, but they were better off than under a communist rule, even if they stupidly choose such a rule.

3- Why did the US support the blood-thirsty dictator Saddam Hussein during the 1980-88 Iraqi-imposed war on Iran, considering his reckless use of chemical weapons against Iranian soldiers defending their land and even against his own people?

First, Iran had openly declared war on the US, so of course we were going to support your enemies. Iran had shown no particular desire to adhere to international law, no reason for us to withhold support of someone fighting you. Dictators is what we did, because the alternative was communists. Easier to control one bonehead than an entire populace of boneheads. We admit it was not a good choice, but the alternative was empire building and multiple wars...Europe tried that for 300 years with no success...we have tried a different path with more success. And as for Hussein, we have now rectified that error...why are you not happy about that?

4- Why is the US putting pressure on the government elected by the majority of Palestinians in Gaza instead of officially recognizing it? And why does it oppose Iran 's proposal to resolve the 60-year-old Palestinian issue through a general referendum?

a) the people of Gaza continue to lob missiles into Israel. The 'elected' terrorists of Gaza seek to destroy Israel. Just because an election - even a completely fair, open and honest one - is held doesn't mean we accept the consequences of such an election. Gaza decided that they want to kill Jews and destroy Israel. They held an election to prove it. So WHAT? Mob rule isn't just or fair. As long as stupid people vote for stupid things, stupid elections will be ignored by more intelligent people. b) see a.

5- Why has the US military failed to find Al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden even with all its advanced equipment? How do you justify the old friendship between the Bush and Bin Laden families and their cooperation on oil deals? How can you justify the Bush administration's efforts to disrupt investigations concerning the September 11 attacks?

a). Frankly, we could find and kill OBL if we acted like ...well, Muslims...indiscriminately killing anything that moves. We try to be more selective in our killing fields. That is why OBL and other muslim mufsid hid as women, hid with women and children. They have no honor, they engage in hirabah. b) We try to hold the people actually responsible for terrorism accountable, rather than their whole family. the Bin Laden family is quite large, no need to tar and feather all of them. Further, we do believe engagement is better than war when possible. When people have a stake in commerce, they are less likely to blow it up. c) I am uncertain what efforts you speak of....maybe it is the same type of investigations into the holocaust you are so fond of?

6- Why does the US administration support the Mujahedin Khalq Organization (MKO) despite the fact that the group has officially and openly accepted the responsibility for numerous deadly bombings and massacres in Iran and Iraq? Why does the US refuse to allow Iran 's current government to act against the MKO's main base in Iraq?

Freedom fighters are always in the eyes of the beholders eh? Your support of terrorists in Iraq is ok, but our support of terrorists in Iran is not. Awww...too bad. Also, given the reporting quality of Iranian media, I would be remiss if I didn't question "massacres"?

7- Was the US invasion of Iraq based on international consensus and did international institutions support it? What was the real purpose behind the invasion which has claimed hundreds of thousands of Iraqi lives? Where are the weapons of mass destruction that the US claimed were being stockpiled in Iraq?

a) yes. UN support, multiple country support....I know you are not a big fan of research that actually deals with facts...but this one is pretty obvious. b) the real purpose was to provide the US military with sufficient bases and in place assets to attack you. We don't have the 'balls' to do it yet, but you are a people that keep giving! c) 177 tonnes of chemical weapons have been found. There are reports of massive movement of materials to Syria prior to our entrance into Iraq.

8- Why do America's closest allies in the Middle East come from extremely undemocratic governments with absolutist monarchical regimes?

Because the alternatives are extremely undemocratic governments with absolutist religious regimes hostile to non-muslim countries? Of course, ISRAEL is not a monarchy....nor is Turkey...or India...

9- Why did the US oppose the plan for a Middle East free of unconventional weapons in the recent session of the International Atomic Energy Agency Board of Governors despite the fact the move won the support of all members other than Israel?

When you outlaw the guns, only the outlaws will have guns. Right now, only Israel has unconventional weapons, though there are some states trying to get them. So the impact is not to prevent the weapons, but to disarm Israel. I know you THINK we are stupid, but...

10- Why is the US displeased with Iran's agreement with the IAEA and why does it openly oppose any progress in talks between Iran and the agency to resolve the nuclear issue under international law?

Because such agreements have worked out so well in the past! A lie is not deception if the person being lied to is deceptive, right? If your country actually lived up to the agreements it makes, we might be more open, however, your country has proved repeatedly that such agreements are worth exactly the paper they are written on.

Finally, we would like to express our readiness to invite you and other scientific delegations to our country. A trip to Iran would allow you and your colleagues to speak directly with Iranians from all walks of life including intellectuals and university scholars. You could then assess the realities of Iranian society without media censorship before making judgments about the Iranian nation and government.

Yes, but could we talk to your women and homosexuals?

I don't get the last word....

THERE ARE NO FREEDOMS WITHOUT LIMIT.....what part of that do you not understand?

Free Speeck

Does anyone agree with me that before we offer someone like the President of Iran our freedom of speech, he should be required, you know, to offer free speech at home?

Ok, maybe that is too hard. But someone from the Kos thinks she is actually turned on by the President of Iran DESPITE the fact that if she actually lived in Iran she would be killed out of hand for being lesbian...hello?

The Columbia faculty wants to hear from the President of Iran, but they don't want to actually LISTEN to him....because, you know....the President of Iran is for the genocide of Jews, the destruction of Israel, the murder (sorry the cleansing) of homosexuals and the destruction of the US....but he may just be 'posturing'.

The entire left wing of the American populace is like that kid in the insurance commercial when his dad, cleaning up the cornpuffs, asks his child (with the orange all over his face, hands and shirt) if he was responsible for the mess? No, is the response.

I am beginning to agree with the left. We brought the 9/11 hijackers down on ourselves. We invited them into this country and gave them our freedoms...none of the attendant responsibilities however and it appears we are going to continue to do so in the future. Columbia University said it would have invited Adolf Hitler had it the opportunity before Germany attacked Poland. You have to wonder how they would answer the question: if you could go back in time to just before WWII and kill Hitler, would you? It appears that many would say nope, they would join him in a lively conversation about how Jews were ruining the world and how French wine would taste with the veal.

Interest Rates

People, I don't care if our mortgage rates drop to 3%, adjustable rate mortgages are based (almost exclusively from our experience) on LIBOR, the London Interbank Rate!!

This week Month ago Year ago 1 Month LIBOR Rate 5.80 5.59 5.33 3 Month LIBOR Rate 5.70 5.53 5.39 6 Month LIBOR Rate 5.49 5.40 5.43

THIS is what is driving the ARMS....and the FED has NO control over it....

Patriotism

There is no need to question the Left's patriotism. It is apparent, it lacks any such emotion.

Global Warming Hot Spots

Read over the weekend:

"Scientists studying global warming have been reluctant to specify any particular area as contributing more to global warming. Although quick to specify general classes of emitters of greenhouse gases such as factories and vehicles, no specific location has ever been identified. In a leaked report from the U.N., this reporter has learned of three specific hot spots that apparently are causing as much as 15% of all the global warming greenhouse gases. The report suggests that a strong effort be made to limit gases from these three areas. Further reductions for the rest of the world would be minimal. They are: an area just north of Los Angeles, mid-town Manhattan and Washington DC. A fourth, minor area in Belgium, appears to be contained but a significant contributor."

Link is not working but I would suggest holding their breaths until everyone else gets on board with greenhouse gas reductions...

Gay Muslim Men

I believe it is possible, even likely, than fanatic Muslim men are gay. Consider this: they are usually unmarried, living with other Muslim men and are childless.

Also, who else needs 72 virgins for sex but men so unschooled in sex that each new partner needs to be equally unschooled?

I recall someone once commenting that terrorists are less than 10% of the Muslim population. Seems to be a coincidence but I think it bears out my theory..

Muslim jihadists are gay.

Ethanol

Why would anyone support ethanol:

1. It costs more to produce than gasoline
2. It takes more ethanol than gasoline for a car to travel each mile
3. It takes 1.5 gallons of gasoline to make 1 gallon of ethanol
4. It uses more water than gasoline to produce
5. It uses food resources to produce - increasing the cost of foodstuffs
6. It relies heavily on corn - corn is more water intensive and requires more fertilizers (made from petroleum products)
7. It is only cost viable with government subsidies - subsidies on the production side not capital side so an increase in volume equals and increase in subsidy costs
8. Less corn food production means higher prices for just about everything sweet

Ethanol means higher gas prices, lower fuel economies, higher food costs and higher government spending.

We have built more ethanol refineries in the last 5 years than oil refineries in the last 30.
We could replace ALL middle east oil if we opened all restricted American fields (Alaska, California and Florida coastlines)

Housing market help

There has been a lot of talk about how to help the thousands of homeowners facing foreclosure as ARMs reset over the next 18 months. The following idea has been floating around and needs serious consideration:

When a person files bankruptcy, contracts can be modified or eliminated EXCEPT for the mortgage of the debtor's primary residence. If this portion of the law were changed to allow the interest rate to be frozen during the bankruptcy proceedings, three things could happen:

1. Only those people that need the help would get the help - means tested provisions of bankruptcy;

2. Only those people that are facing the loss of their primary residence would get help (investors would be out of luck);

3. Debtors would get assistance getting the rest of their debt situation straightened out so that when they came out of bankruptcy and the mortgage would resume it's normal rate of interest, they would be in better financial shape to handle it.

LIBOR

Did you know that most adjustable rate mortgages are based on the London Interbank Lending Rate? Did you know that the rate has increased almost a full point in just the last 30 days? and almost 1.5% since the spring?

Finally, did you know that almost without exception, ARMs will reset to rate OVER 10%, in many cases as high as 12 or 13%

Inflation is 2-3%......not a bad spread on a secured loan.

What I did on my summer vacation....

Last week we had the opportunity to take our first vacation in 3 years. It was only for 8 days but at least we got away.

We booked the vacation on Thursday and spent most of Friday trying to tie up loose ends. We drove to my parents in Chicago on Friday evening, arriving around 8. My mother was nice enough to get up at 5am to drive us to the airport (10 minutes away). We checked in and worked our way through security. CJ said that the TSA people were nice but treated us like cattle! I thought they were efficient, professional and polite and I thanked them for their work. After putting on our sandals again(!), we headed for the gate. The plane boarded and took off on time. The flight was enjoyable and CJ took some great pictures.

We arrived in Southern California at 9am local and picked up our car (2006 Dodge Charger - big car, 24-26mpg). Instead of heading for the hotel (in Calabasas), we headed to Palm Springs. Lunch was pizza and cost almost $40! A drive over the mountains and Riverside County was enjoyable - especially the short rain, the only rain we would encounter the entire time there.

We headed for the hotel and arrived just after check in time. We stayed at the Good Nite Inn at the Malibu Canyon exit of the 101. We had found this hotel several years ago and found it both nice and convenient. A little more wandering and we stopped at a grocery store to pick up some supplies. One item: orange juice. Victoria's diabetes responds well to OJ if she gets a little low on sugar and we always keep some on hand. It only cost $10 for 1/2 gallon - we didn't notice until after we returned to the room.

Sunday we went to Santa Barbara. Victoria wants to consider this town as a possible retirement spot. We decided to stop in at an open house to get a feel for prices and the types of homes available. We found one in a nice, average neighborhood, far from the beach and hills. 1100 sq feet, 3 bedrooms, 1 1/2 baths. 6k sq ft lot. Nice backyard, nothing special, small patio, local plants. $1,295,000.

Yep. $1.3 million dollars. We found an older home, less "upgrades", corner lot about the same size also 3 bedrooms, 2 baths for $880,000. Realtor said the children of the owner who had just moved to a nursing home had lowered the price for a 'quick sale'.

The last house we saw was near the high school Victoria had found that had excellent student results and test scores. CJ loved the house. Nice upgrades (cabinets, floors, counters) but still only about 1200 sq feet, 6k lot and 3 bedrooms, 2 baths. $875,000.

We knew that California prices for real estate were going to be higher but...

On Saturday, we stopped in Rancho California for ice cream. I picked up the local paper and looked in the Real Estate section. I lived just 10 minutes north of there 25 years ago when Rancho California had just over 5k people, one little strip center, Winchester still had wood side walks and Temecula was a couple of thousand people, mostly ranches and Callaway Vineyards. Today there are over 180,000 people in the area. Of the 3 pages of real estate, one had a half page ad listing 20 homes. Every single home was for more than $500,000 and every single home was bank owned.

The realtor in Santa Barbara had been talking to others at the open house complaining that the media was blowing the foreclosure issue way out of proportion. We don't think so...

Monday we spent the day (mostly) at the beach in Malibu!! The water was COLD! But we had a good time. Tuesday we traveled around, including stopping at UCLA for a t-shirt for Victoria. Wednesday we did a little beach time and some more wandering in Santa Barbara. First stop was UCSB for a t-shirt and we then stopped by every home listed for sale in the Sunday home guide in Goleta (a suburb! of Santa Barbara and home to the high school). Nothing was less than $600,000.

Thursday was another beach day. We spent most of it in Laguna Nigel in south Orange County. If it were possible, the water was colder! Later, we headed south and found a great beach at Torrey Pines State Park just north of San Diego. The water was warmer, the beach was great sand and the waves were great. Too bad we didn't get there til 6:30pm. CJ got a great sunset picture.

Friday was a free day. I suggested a quick trip to the mountains and Victoria suggested a return trip to Torrey Pines. We headed for Mount Wilson and a great view of the valley. Unfortunately, on the way back down I hit a rock from a small rock slide. I didn't know it then, but it either damaged the oil filter or punched a small hole in the oil pan. We found it later in Palmdale when I stopped for gas and the oil just flowed from under the car. We found a Barnes and Noble nearby, called the rental car (Dollar) roadside service and they said they would get a replacement to us in a couple of hours. It was 1pm. 2pm. 3pm. 4pm. 5pm - hey, where is the replacement car? 20 more minutes was the reply.... 5:30pm, 6pm...finally. Dodge Magnum. Too late to finish the mountain trip, too late for the beach...we went back to the hotel disappointed. We did our laundry and packed up.

Saturday. This was check out day, but our plane was not due to leave til 12:25am on Sunday. Victoria suggested Torrey Pines, I wanted to hit Ojai (our target for Friday). I got lost and it took us 2 hours to get there instead of 1. It took us an extra 45 minutes to get out of there because I started back the wrong way! Three hours later we were in a traffic jam just in San Diego county. I got off the freeway 5 miles north of Torrey Pines and wasted 45 minutes getting there using the ocean highway....we arrived at Torrey Pines at 6:45. I got a little time in the surf, CJ got another picture of the sunset and Victoria didn't get any time in the water. It was a complete BUST. My fault. I should have just ignored the Ojai jaunt and headed for the beach.... We traveled up to the airport, dropping off the car at 10:30.

At Midway Airport in Chicago, there was free wireless internet...no such thing at Ontario in California. We boarded the plane on time, there were extra open seats to do a little stretching out on, but the plane was 30 minutes late leaving - maintenance paperwork...

We arrived in Chicago at 6am and caught a cab to my parents. We all crashed...quietly.

We put almost 1800 miles on the rental, we averaged 25 mpg and paid an average of 2.75/gal.
The airfare cost us just over $200 each, roundtrip, with all the extra fees. The hotel was about $85 a night. Not an expensive week all things considered. We relaxed. The average daytime temperature at the hotel was over 100 the entire week. The beaches were considerably cooler. Bad storms hit on Friday but missed us.

CJ took almost 150 pictures on our new 7 mega pixel camera and both of us got some nice tanning (Victoria uses lots of sunscreen and avoids a lot of exposure!)

How was your summer?

Wrong line...

This morning I watched Meet the Press. I usually don't but the dvr didn't catch Fox News Sunday and I missed it again this afternoon.

When is someone in Washington going to learn/listen/realize that the loss of the Republicans in 2006 came about because of three factors, two minor, one major: one|minor: corruption. Every conservative expects democrats to be corrupt, we just hope it will be of the minor, personal kind. We don't expect the conservatives to be corrupt - except for the hypocrisy of sexual misdeeds. Cunningham was just so over the top... two|minor: pork. Every thinking person knows a politician is going to bring home some pork for his/her district. New highway, big contract - lots of jobs...good pork. No one wants 5 million for someones back yard museum that no one is going to visit...you know, a million here, a billion there...soon it is real money and the "conservatives" seemed interested in only real money pork. And then there was

three|major: immigration. How in the hell ANYONE can think that immigration reform as proposed was a good idea I'll never know. And it only got worse. John McCain has lost any chance of being president with his support of the reform this spring. Of all the stupid, dangerous and corrupt ideas to come out of Washington....

THE IRAQ WAR DID NOT COST THE REPUBLICANS THE CONGRESS: The republican congress cost the republicans the Congress. When a current presidential candidate realizes this and actually begins to say it in his campaign, THEN we have a candidate, and not a day sooner.

Let me ....

Pss a few people off....

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For their population, blacks have too much influence. Liberals have allowed blacks to play the victim card for so long that blacks believe they have a right, and the rest of us have an obligation to compensate them for every perceived ill falling on them.

1/2 of all murders caused by black men. Despite the fact that the majority of those murders are in fact against other blacks is IRRELEVANT. What kind of crap is that? 5% of the population is causing 1/2 the murders? I read recently that 70% of all births to black women are to unwed women. The men are either cowards, or boys with dicks too large for the minuscule balls attached to them.

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NASA has issued revised numbers for climate temperatures. The revision effectively eliminates global temperatures as an argument for global warming. However, even though there might be something to it, I want an answer the following questions: 1) how many weather stations are there in a: the Sahara desert; the Gobi desert, the Siberian tundra, the Amazon; b) the United States, China, India, Russia, Mexico; c) the Canary Islands, the Hawaiian Islands, the Philippines; the Falklands; Madagascar. 2) how many weather stations are within 1000 yds of a parking lot, an air conditioned building, paved roads, manicured lawns; 3) how many weather stations have been operating for more than 10 years, 20 years, 50 years.

Don't give me shit about core samples unless you can tell me how much precipitation has fallen annually for each year the core sample represents and how much that differed from average.

Finally, assuming for just a second that you can prove even the slightest increase in temperatures, tell me what temperature is the CORRECT temperature for Earth...so that we know if we are cooler or warmer than that number....please make sure you have as much "scientific evidence" for your assertion of the "CORRECT" temperature as you do for the "fact" that we are currently --warming--.

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Right now, today, only one person has a chance of getting the Democratic nomination for president....Mrs. William Jefferson Clinton. As many, if not most Democrats think that Willy was the second coming....it appears most democrats have decided that they are ok with the first husband getting regular bjs....from just about anything walking over the age of 18 ....because at least it won't happen in the Oval Office anymore.

Right now, today, only two people have a chance of getting the Republican nomination for President, and one of the two stands as much chance as someone getting a snowball off at Tiger Woods this past weekend. Giuliani is the most likely, but in order to do it, the far right of the republican base will have to prove they can be just as pathetic as the democrats. A 50 something man takes advantage of a 20-something intern and the democrats practically fall over themselves to claim such an event as consent between two adults thereby erasing 30 years of getting people to see such an event as at least sexual harassment Republicans will be falling all over themselves making excuses for someone that 1) has been married three times and 2) moved his mistress into his home prior to the last divorce.....yea, family values all over that one.

If the democrats are suffering from BDS, it can equally be said that republicans are suffering from CDS.

Frankly, I doubt the country would be in worse shape if we just ignored everyone currently running (or thinking of running: Gore, Thompson, Gingrich) and picked someone out of a phone book.

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I think the Fed (and the central bank of Germany, France, Japan and the UK) should just let the stupids that loaned money to the stupids that agreed to take them each suffer their fates. We recently had clients that make 30k a year NET come in to try and save their home....the mortgage payment of which was 26k a year. They had the same income when they got the loan several years ago. Can ANYONE justify such blatant stupidity? I can't get a credit card but some moron thinks a $1200 a month mortgage is ok for someone making 8.75 an hour?

In the early 80's in California, people were getting 2nd, 3rd and 4th mortgages (all with 1 or 2 year balloons) because property values were rising at 5 and 6% A WEEK. DUH. If you think anything is different in Florida, Nevada, California or Arizona over the last 5 years, you'd be wrong, it's worse.

Wait till people start realizing the IRS treats a foreclosure AS INCOME to the poor saps that lost their home...can you say tax burden?

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Mainstream Press couldn't tell a story from a fable if it hit them square in the face. Did you know that Obama's #1 best buddy, mentor and supporter is under indictment? NO? Really...

Did you know that the average corporal in Iraq is a bigger asshole than the majority of major league sports figures? Really, apparently war does that to you....but I don't remember Bonds or Vick serving....

Can you name me ONE national media person who you DON'T know which party they support?

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Does anyone believe that rap should have a first amendment right to call for the killing or raping of anyone? Really? what do you think I THINK?

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Lastly: how many of you with internet access at work have viewed at least ONE youtube video in the last 4 weeks at work?

You're part of the problem too....

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Addendum: Consensus among scientists

I don't give a shite if every single scientist on the planet THINKS global warming is real; I don't give a shite if every single scientist on the planet BELIEVES global warming is real; I don't even give a shite if every single scientist on the planet AGREES global warming is real; because until 2 different scientists, using proven objective data, and verifiable scientific methods PROVES that the Earth is warming, every thought, belief and agreement is exactly what you would expect coming from assholes, shite.

First Principles

Is it possible that the Peter Principle applies to politics also? Is it possible that our elected leaders represent not the best of the best, but the best of the worst? Is that in fact the definition of the better of two evils? Looking at the presidential contenders currently available, can ANYONE really believe that in a nation of 300 million, THIS is the best we can do?

Frankly, absent a political job, most of the candidates couldn't get hired at Burger King. Mitt might be the exception to the rule.

Let us look at two issues: immigration and global warming. First, immigration. If ANY of the supporters of the current immigration bill would spend one day talking to people that actually, legally, immigrated to the United States in the 50s or 60's - like my parents - they would know that those people are overwhelmingly PISSED at the current bill. I have supported immigration since I was old enough to understand it. My parents benefited, as I have, from their presence here. However, they spent years working on getting citizenship. All they/we see now is a large group of people that think they deserve citizenship and their enablers.

If someone broke into a health club and said they just wanted to get fit, does anyone think the club owners would just say "Well of course, here is a membership, on us!"

Bally's reported today that 47 people caught breaking into their facilities would receive free memberships. Police applauded the move as a reasonable accommodation for people that had no where else to turn. Representative Dufus from the local district released a statement calling for police to stop weighing anyone accused of a crime. Bally's stated the memberships were warranted as no one else would sign up for them anymore.....

Global warming: Mars has warmed up about as much as the Earth over the last 20 years. I keep hearing that said in debates about global warming but it seems the only ones listening to it, are those saying it.

Fine, conceded, we are warmer now than 20 years ago. SO WHAT? It doesn't mean anything. Certainly not global catastrophe. I don't care what ANYONE says about climate change UNLESS they can tell me exactly what the impact on PLANT life will be in a warmer world. Because, frankly, we are at the top of the food chain and if warming HELPS the bottom of the food chain, we are going to be much better off.

And, will the people in the developed nations please get a life. Any more egocentric and I am going to start a mirror factory. The carbon footprint of the majority of the people of the world looks like a footprint in the dirt BECAUSE IT IS A FOOTPRINT IN THE DIRT. We can reduce carbon dioxide emissions dramatically if we just eliminated...oh.....4 billion people? You know...the increase in the population over the last 100 years?

We have been having really great weather here the last week or so. I have been able to spend evenings on the deck looking up at the stars. There appear to be about 12 people on the planet like me....do they all think like I do that given the UNIVERSE, we are acting like a bunch of ants?

An Open Letter to Senator Feingold:

Dear Senator:

A long time ago, living in another state, I had the audacity to send a letter to my Senator. Adlai Stevenson was his name. In it, I voiced my opinion on a topic that I disagreed with the Senator on. I received a nice reply, first acknowledging our disagreement, then stating the reasons for his position. He further appreciated that I understood that he represented all of the people of Illinois, not just me or those that disagreed with me. It was a great personal letter, from a great Senator, to a young constituent.

Recently, I sent a similar email to you. We had met in person on Palm Sunday and had a nice, simple conversation. I wanted to let you know that although there were a large number of people in Wisconsin that agreed with many of your positions, particularly on Iraq, that there were constituents that did not agree.

What I received in return about 2 weeks later was a canned response, reproduced and commented on below. A four sentence personal response from you would have taken 1 minute of your precious time. I realize you represent several million people and that you probably receive thousands of emails/letters. Your response to me reminds me of the movie character Scrooged played by Bill Murray and I hope at some time you might have a similar awakening.

Dear Ms. Coyle,

Thank you for contacting me regarding the war in Iraq. I
appreciate hearing from you about one of the most important issues
facing our country today.

Really? Did you even see my email? Did it rise to the top of your staff's list of things to discuss with you during your busy schedule? I doubt it.

I strongly support our troops who have courageously answered the
call to service, but I remain deeply concerned that the President's
policies in Iraq are undermining our top national security priority:
fighting al Qaeda and its affiliates that attacked our country on
September 11, 2001. In October 2002, I voted against the
resolution authorizing the President to use force in Iraq because I
questioned the shifting justifications for this mission and feared
that it would weaken our capacity to combat terrorism.

Sir, your support of our troops is nothing more than lip-service. You fail to understand the nature of their mission. You question their very effort. You ignore the proclamations of the very terrorists you claim to be against. Iraq is the front line on the war on terror. Is there any doubt that terrorists are involved when the vast majority of deaths occurring in Iraq are civilian, caused by car bombs and suicide bombers? By your own words, you have been actively opposed to military involvement in Iraq since 2002. What sir is an appropriate use of our military? For almost 10 years Iraq was shooting at our aircraft patrolling the No-Fly zones with little fear of reprisal. For over 20 years, Iraq murdered it's own citizens. For over 10 years, Iraq manipulated UN sanctions. For over 10 years, Iraq maintained its ability to resume chemical, biological and nuclear programs, waiting for the day sanctions ended. A day that was fast approaching. Finally, Iraq openly supported terrorists in other parts of the world - specifically sending money to the families of suicide bombers in Israel. Iraq had attacked two neighbors in 10 years. A threat sir?

Since the war began, I have repeatedly pressed the Administration
to provide a clear strategy for success in Iraq and a strategy for
defeating the global terrorist networks that threaten the United
States. Unfortunately, the Administration continues to pursue a
misguided and open-ended military mission in Iraq that has
diverted resources and attention from other places around the
world where terrorist networks that threaten the U.S. are operating.
I am deeply concerned by the President's decision in January to
increase troop levels in Iraq, which ignores the wishes of the
American people and members of both parties.

What you have demanded was a program for retreat. There is no "clear strategy for success". Such a childish notion about something as impossible to predict as WAR is beneath your apparent ability or it suggests a level of dis ingeniousness unbecoming a United States Senator. Your characterization that the military mission is "misguided" suggests that you think Iraq would have been better off left alone. What a pleasant prospect for millions of Iraqis.

What other places around the world would you send our troops to Senator? Darfur? Malasyia? Afghanistan? Great Britain? Spain? How about Venezuela? WHERE Senator are terrorist networks threatening the US other than where they stand toe to toe with our soldiers?

Since when should a war be fought using polls? What constitutional section gives the populace operational control over the deployment of the troops? What constitutional section gives the CONGRESS operational control over the deployment of the troops? When do you think it is supporting the troops to demand their retreat, not because they are failing on the battlefield, but because it has become unpopular at home?

NO ONE LIKES WAR. Everyone would like it to end. It ends however not when we leave, but when the enemy surrenders or dies. Taking our troops from Iraq will not end the bloodshed in Iraq, it will only increase it. Taking our troops from Iraq will not placate terrorists, only embolden them. Taking our troops from Iraq and sending them....where? will not strengthen our forces, only demoralize them.

I am working to bring an end to our involvement in this war. I
recently introduced legislation with Senate Majority Leader Harry
Reid (D-NV) and eight other Senators to safely redeploy United
States troops from Iraq. Our bill would require the President to
begin redeploying troops within 120 days and would require
redeployment to be completed by March 31, 2008, with three
narrow exceptions.

Sir, unless you have some ability to negotiate on the behalf of the United States with the terrorists, your efforts to bring an end to our involvement in this war is nothing more than politics, and may be something much more dangerous. Where did you, when did you, introduce legislation calling on the terrorists to stop blowing up children? When were you on the Senate floor calling for Muslims to rise up against fanatics in their religion?

Senator, what is the purpose of our military? Do you even understand their role? Our troops are not supposed to be safe on bases far from battle. They are supposed to be killing those that kill others. They are supposed to be on the front line. And Senator, can you please point out where in the Constitution you and your fellow Senators have any role dictating to the President operational control of troops on the battlefield?

You may also be interested to know that on
April 26, 2007, I voted for H.R. 1591, the fiscal year 2007
emergency supplemental bill. I was pleased that this bill included
binding language that will effectively end the current misguided
military mission in Iraq and require the President to begin
redeploying U.S. troops from Iraq in 120 days. I encourage you to
visit my website for a more detailed account of my work on Iraq at
<http://www.feingold.senate.gov>.

The "misguided military mission". How does this position support the troops? What you apparently mean by support is to protect the little boys and girls from getting hurt by the bad mens killing civilians in Iraq. I am sure the troops are flattered by your compassion. Your efforts on behalf of the civilians in Iraq is equally appreciated by them, I'm sure.

Your continued support is doing more damage to our troops than your ignorance of them, so if you don't mind, please stop supporting the troops. With support like yours, terrorists will soon have an open field in which to ply their trade.

I am also working hard to help ensure effective oversight and
accountability for reconstruction efforts in Iraq. The economic
costs of this war have been staggering, and I am dismayed that we
are running up debts to pay for this war that the next generation of
Americans will be called upon to pay. I continue to push for
accountability and transparency in the use of taxpayer money in
Iraq. I led efforts to create and then extend the life of the Special
Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction (SIGIR), whose office is
charged with making sure that U.S. reconstruction dollars in Iraq
are not subject to waste, fraud or abuse.

Why not spend your time working on effective oversight and accountability for reconstruction efforts in NEW ORLEANS? At least there, we have some control over the land...as you know...it actually belongs to us. How about pushing for accountability and transparency in congressional spending bills?

As a member of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, the
Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, and the Senate
Committee on the Budget, I will continue to work to end our
involvement in this war. Thanks again for contacting me about
this extremely important issue. I look forward to hearing from you
in the future.

As a member of those two important committees, I am concerned that your stated positions are doing more to undermine our country than help it. I am sure you believe you are acting responsibly and in a manner you think is consistent with the best interests of this country. But if your response to my email is any indication, you are as impotent as the rest of the political class. Frankly, I would appreciate your actions be more consistent with the senior Senator of Wisconsin: you know, more seen, less heard Kohl.

Oh, I am sure you will not be looking forward to any more missives from me.

Not so sincerely this time,
Tracy Coyle
Madison, WI

Gun Deaths

I generally have ignored the VT murders. I don't know anyone that attends the campus; I live almost 1,000 miles away from it. It has no real impact on my life. But I am not a hermit. I read a comment on a blog post comparing the death rate from guns in Australia and the US. The commenter noted the countries are very similar in many cultural ways but that we had twice as many deaths from guns. Why she wondered.

I thought about race. I had a stereotype in my head that blacks died as a result of guns in much higher proportions than whites. I went in search of evidence to support my stereotype. And found it...but in looking at the page I found, there was something else MUCH MORE STARTLING.

55% of gun deaths in 2004....were suicides. 25% of those under 18 and 74% of those over 40 were suicides. The vast majority were white men. It appears that if a gun is in the house, the more likely event is that the man is going to use it to kill himself.

I am a street thug...

Victoria informed me this morning that some people believe that plans are in place for the simultaneous denotation of seven nukes on American soil. We discussed what cities would be targets (my picks: NY, LA, SF, DC, Chicago, Kansas City and Atlanta - that covers ports, financial markets, telecommunications and government) She asked where I would want to "ride them out" and suggested right here is fine....unless Minneapolis is targeted, we are upwind from the closest strike in Chicago.

I also suggested to her that Islam as a religion would be in jeopardy and that Mecca would glow for centuries. I said that people like me would seek out Moslems for destruction. I thought, did not say then, but do here, that if such an attack occured, I will be one of those street thugs that physically attacks any "peace" activists or "anti-war" protesters.

Consider me to have jumped the shark if you will ...

Reality has left the building...

I listen to Rush and Hannity. I listen to Air America. I am pretty sure the two groups are living on different planets...or at least in different universes.

I look at the housing market - mortgage lenders folding like chairs after a public hearing - and the steady increase in foreclosures; I look at the words coming out of people that watch the stock markets for a living and markets that apparently have no connection to those pundits.

I think of a dozen or so candidates for President that have raised over $125 million in the last
three months for their bids and the 70% increase in bankruptcy filings.

I see AG Gonzo testify before Congress and wonder, did he not know he was going to be testifying? I heard he was preparing for his testimony but they had to have been talking about someone else...cause that pod talking yesterday made less sense than an Elmo doll with a broken string.

I hear Harry Reid say that we have lost the war, when the only shots we seem to be firing are coming from some deranged idiot in Virginia.

Am I the only one caught in some reality vortex, unaffected but able to view the shifting, twisting, contradictory realities?

Or is the world actually just fine and I have lost my mind?

Iraq Derangement Syndrome

Heard an hour ago on Air America on the possible reasons for the VT killer's rampage:

The Iraq war has driven all of us insane.

Yep....the Iraq war drove the VT killer to kill 32 and wound dozens more.

Gun Question

Here it is: If a student at VT had pulled a gun out and killed the killer of 32 after he had killed only 4, would he be a hero, or arrested for having a gun on campus?

Thousands are killed by drunk drivers every year....is anyone contemplating additional restrictions on drinking or driving? Say life in prison for a 2nd DUI? Or requiring the breathalizer equipment be installed on every vehicle?

Just asking...

New rights

Can anyone tell me when the Right Not to be Offended was written into some law? Because, I really need to know what the penalties are...."don't do the crime if you can't do the time" and all.

Everyone claiming Imus was an ass are 1) not saying anything new, and 2) need to grow up. "Mommy, he made fun of me. He called me a NAME...." whiners.

Stinkin culture

Name one country other than the United States that if it ceased to exist today, would be missed tomorrow.

Moderate + Mainstream

I am right of center....fiscally. I am left of center....socially.

I believe that government is the worst use of our money. It is a necessary evil with regard to those things it was originally empowered to do. It has however, stepped into many things it does not belong in. The less money it has, the less meddling it does.

I am pro-abortion...for the first two trimesters....then opposed on virtually any grounds.

I am against a single-payer medical system. I have family in England and I have had medical care in Canada. Talk to the average person in either country and they will literally spit their hatred of their medical systems. I am willing to support a government program of vouchers for medical care AND schools.

I am pro-education, but anti-teachers unions. One of the worst features of our educational system is tenure. It should be abolished. I am opposed to unions in general. My father was a shop steward. In Chicago. I have seen first hand the terrible toll unions can inflict on workers and businesses.

I am pro-military. I served, my father served, my brother served (and retired from) and my nephew is currently serving. My support is total. (Did I support the actions inAbu-Grab, no, don't be stupid)

I am pro-1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and so on amendment rights. I am anti-ACLU.

My positions are MODERATE. They are shared by the VAST majority of Americans.

However, our media - all of it - has reached a point where people on the left can not tell a moderate liberal position and where people on the right can not tell a moderate conservative position. Increasingly, the only voices you hear on TV, cable or radio are absolute conservatives and absolute liberals. I chose the adjective absolute instead of far-left/right because someone doesn't have to be far-either to be an absolutist. Victoria holds virtually no conservative positions (I have just sat here for 5 minutes to try and think of one with no luck) but I wouldn't call her far-left.

It has become "normal" for the far-right/left to eat their own. Code Pink camping out on Pelosi's stoop? Air American couldn't espouse a moderate position if it's life depended on it. Ann Coulter has become a parody of herself. The religious right sees Satan in every picture/video/liberal.

People are tuning out media. Networks are losing viewers (they are not going to cable); newspapers are dead - momentum is all they have going for them right now. The average radio or cable show has a couple million listeners/viewers....many shared. (The Air America crowd watchesOberman, the Rush crowd watches O'Reilly)

People of good intentions on the left get shouted down by the right because if the right gives an inch, the left takes a mile. People of good intentions on the right get shouted down by the left because if the left gives an inch, the right takes a mile. No one wants to give the left/right any more ammunition than they already have so the moderates shut up and leave the field to the fringe - now called "mainstream"

Rush has said that moderates do not get anything done. Only those that take a stand firmly Conservative(Liberal) accomplish great things. He might be right about great things, but every day, every where, moderates stock theWalMart shelves, deliver the gas to the stations, serve in our military and serve in the soup kitchens.

I am proud to be a moderate. Someday, we might even elect one.

Top Picks - Science Fiction

My top picks for Science Fiction, book

1. Battlefield Earth, by L. Ron Hubbard (say whatever you want about Scientology, the book is a first rate read)

2 Jumper by Stephen Gould. I spent months after first reading it thinking about what I would do! I decided to re-read it!

3. White Wing, by Gordon Kendall. A complete surprise and worth packing in your favorite suitcase after reading it...because it is worth reading every time.

4. Ender's Game, by Orson Scott Card. I didn't know, til Ender did and easily the best of the series.

5. There are two series, any one from which is a top five:
Sten series (8 books) by Chris Bunch and Alan Cole, I still tell the jokes.
Honor Harrington series (10? books) by David Weber. Is it luck if you pick the right club, call the shot, land it exactly, and sink it from 100 yds?


I just finished reading Old Man's War based on a blog recommendation and it is already a top ten. After another read sometime late this year, it will probably move up some.

Mortgage Fraud

One of the questions swirling around bankruptcy attorney circles is: where is the fraud?

We are seeing people facing mortgages where the monthly payments are increasing 40% or more in a 2-2.5 year period. Chapter 13 bankruptcy trustees are beginning to require proposed plans deal with the mortgage payments at their highest possible level rather than what the loan currently calls for.

It started me thinking. Everyone (that supported bankruptcy reform) is going blame the consumer for agreeing to mortgages that they had no chance of ever repaying. The consumer is going to blame the mortgage originator that told them they could refinance before the adjustments started. The mortgage originators are going to offer, the consumer knew the risks...of course, we are watching mortgage lenders flee the scene like cockroaches.

A typical bond is sold based on the interest rate earned. Because the rate of the bond is fixed, as interest rates move, the price moves inversely. Mortgage back securities (MBS) operate in a generally similar way. Although there are many more factors and risks involved, the issue is "what is the rate of return"?

For a good overview of the MBS market, check out this Fannie Mae page.

That said, let me share some numbers.
A $200,000 loan, 3/27 ARM, initial rate 8.5%, index 9.5%+LIBOR, 6 month adj, 11.5% initial cap, initial monthly payment $1,537.83.

Based on current LIBOR, if this loan was issued in 2004(it was), then on Jan 1, 2009, the payment will be $2,401.51, a 56% increase. This does not include any amounts for, or changes in, property taxes or insurance.

If the loan goes to maturity, the effective rate over the term would be 10.48%
Ignoring all the risk factors, what would the basis for purchase price of this loan be?
The 10.48% yield?
The 8.5% initial yield?
The 9.52% index yield?

Assuming a Fannie Mae MBS was priced to yield 6.5% on a pool of 1000 of these?

Value of 10.48% yield $322,557.53 x 1000
Value of 8.5% yield $261,538.46 x 1000
Value of 9.52% yield $292,923.08 x 1000

If I borrowed $2,000,000 from you at 5.5% and loaned it to 10 people at the 3/27 ARM rate indicated. The potential profit on reselling the loans in 90-120 days is enormous. Of course defaults and early repayments seriously affect yields...so as a buyer of the MBS, I might be a little miffed if the underlying loans crash and burn.

The scenario I see unfolding (originally) is that as more money is made, it chases more and more potential loans with huge index spreads...this would drive DOWN the initial interest rates as lenders compete. As the market begins to crash (when there are no more people obtaining loans (you have already dreged the bottom), then the interest rates are going to climb to ...the index yield, 9.52%, at least.

What happens to a bond price when the interest rate climbs 3000 basis points?

Care to answer Fannie Mae? Chairman Bernanke?

There may be no interest rate acceptable to the market for these securities. If that happens, the MBS market will crash and the largest holder of MBS is Fannie Mae.

Bernanke may have no good options to deal with the situation. Large banks and securities firms will have no choice but to purchase the MBS originators at losses to protect their own positions as large scale bankruptcies would all but eliminate funding for the MANY hundreds of billions of loans resetting with millions of borrowers unable to qualify for a standard loan.

Let me be a scare-monger. It is possible that as many as 90% of ARMs sold in the last 2-3 years will default eventually.

And who do you think will be blamed?

Lying

I want to say something about lying. It seems to be happening more frequently.

People are getting up in front of cameras and opening their mouths and what is coming out is so blatantly a lie that you'd expect everyone to audibly gasp. But it doesn't happen. No one calls them on their lie. No one questions their lie. Lies. Flat out, clear cut, lies.

My problem is that EVERYONE lies a little. For a long time I tried really hard to either tell the truth or shut up. But little things happen: the boss is in but doesn't want to talk to someone "sorry, not available". I am pretty good at avoiding big lies...one of the reasons people tend to ask me for my opinion is they trust what comes out, even if they don't like what they hear.

We expect politicians to lie. It is part of the job description. Still, John Edwards talks about two Americas while building a 28,000 sq ft mansion; Al Gore talks about global warming while flying in private jets; the war on drugs is apparently now the war on those fighting drugs; "we support the troops"; Sandy Berger forgot about the documents in his underwear; Libby was covering for Cheney; Joe Wilson was set up;

Don't get me started on American Idol or the Oscars...

We are well down a spiraling slide of dishonesty...and I can't see anyway to stop it.

Seethuma

Research in this country is in serious need of assistance. If you believe that basic research needs more attention and you have a research bankground, I would be interested in your opinions. By invitation only.

Blog Talk Radio

A new service is available for just about anyone to host their own podcast/radio show. I will be hosting my first show today at 9:30 central. Tune in live (call in is available) or listen later!

Ketsup or Catch Up

Global Defrosting

Can someone tell me what is the correct average mean temperature for Earth? Come on, anyone? I mean, if EVERYONE believes that the Earth is getting warmer, then they should know if that is a good thing or not. Right? Just because the Earth is getting warmer in and of itself doesn't mean anything good or bad. No?

If the average mean temperature of Earth should be 4 degrees higher than it is now, then the warming is a good thing and we should help accelerate it! If it is 4 degrees lower than it is now, then we need to kill off about 4 billion people to turn the tide...anything else would be throwing ice cubes at a bonfire.

I would like to offer a different way of thinking about the rising temperature, from on now, I am going to call it global defrosting

ALERT - Vehicle Repossession in Wisconsin

A major change in Wisconsin law now allows auto loan lenders to repossess a vehicle 15 days after a notice of default has been sent (there is some question about it being 15 days from receipt of the notice but that has not been tested).

If you are someone that does not open bills until you can pay them, you might have a notice stating your are in default. You could walk out your door and find your vehicle gone with little recourse.

This is called self-help repossession and is VERY different from the previous requirement to obtain a judicial judgment.

Is this the party you want?

I know bankruptcy reform gets a lot of support from conservatives espousing personal responsibility but what happens when someone is irresponsible (of just plain stupid) and ends up with enough debt to choke a horse? Debtor's prison? The Republicans have become a special interest group for corporate interests. I do not mean that in the same sense that the looney left states it, but what is good for GM is NOT necessarily good for America anymore, as Toyota is teaching many former union workers.

Immigration helps this country in dozens of ways and as the first born of immigrants, I STRONGLY support immigration. The pandering...no, the selling out of America to ILLEGAL immigrants is as bad as selling out the troops. I don't understand why Bush and the Republicans can't see that.

How many people that complained about people like me in November (that refused to vote Republican because of their behavior despite disliking everything about the Democrats) are watching in abject horror at Republicans defecting on the GWOT, taxes, minimum wage, immigration?

The political class...oh wait, there is not supposed to be a political class....needs to be sent packing and if the current behavior doesn't encourage more of the base to leave Republican politicians flapping in the wind, then we have truly lost the base.

The Pledge

If the United States Senate passes a resolution, non-binding or otherwise, that criticizes the commitment of additional troops to Iraq that General Petraeus has asked for and that the president has pledged, and if the Senate does so after the testimony of General Petraeus on January 23 that such a resolution will be an encouragement to the enemy, I will not contribute to any Republican senator who voted for the resolution. Further, if any Republican senator who votes for such a resolution is a candidate for re-election in 2008, I will not contribute to the National Republican Senatorial Committee unless the Chairman of that Committee, Senator Ensign, commits in writing that none of the funds of the NRSC will go to support the re-election of any senator supporting the non-binding resolution.

If you agree or support this pledge, please join in signing it here

The Crusades

Recently read a post about the potential of Al Gore getting involved in the 2008 Presidential race. Also, so talk of Newt doing so. My one and only response at this time to such?

To the Rescue: The Knights in Tarnished Armor.

A final tally

Foreclosures in my area(6 counties) finished the year up 30.24%. Two counties were over 50% (Dane 57.11%, Jefferson, 54.61%). Over the last 5 years, foreclosures area wide are up over 66%. I am undecided if I will review all 2,188 foreclosures to determine their outcomes. In the past, more than half of all foreclosure filings resulted in the loss of the home.

There is no indication that the rate of foreclosures is slowing at all.

Civilization

Over the holiday I got caught up in a special about the origins of humans. All the other issues aside, the thing that caught my attention was a researchers finding that a people in Asia were descendants of the original migration out of Africa. Specifically, the people were living in a village of huts made of mud and vegetation. 25,000 years of these people living in that area had produced, mud huts.

How many Muslim nations (nations where the majority of the population are Muslim) have provided ANY significant contribution to civilization in the last...200-300 years? (Don't be pathetic by noting civilization would not exist without Middle East oil. Such a contribution could have been made fish in the North Sea also...)

Except for the mineral deposits found under their feet, would civilization be any worse off if they all just ceased to exist? I AM NOT SUGGESTING ANYTHING. I note that advancements in medicine, technology, biology and society (democratic institutions) have ALL come from areas other than those dominated by Islam.

It is not enough to look at the appalling lack of advancement in many parts of the world without noting the dangerous situation happening in the US.

Over the last decade, between 347,000 and 544,000 10th- through 12th-grade students left school each year without successfully completing a high school program (table C1). Status dropout rates represent the proportion of young people ages 16 through 24 who are out of school and who have not earned a high school credential. Status rates are higher than event rates because they include all dropouts in this age range, regardless of when they last attended school.

In October 2000, some 3.8 million young adults were not enrolled in a high school program and had not completed high school. These youths accounted for 10.9 percent of the 34.6 million 16- through 24-year-olds in the United States in 2000 (table A, figure A, and table 3). As noted with event rates, status rates declined from the early 1970s into the late 1980s, but since then have remained stable (figure 2 and table B5).

The time period indicated in the first paragraph was 1990-2000. The quotes came from this report.

My first question is: what kind of jobs are these millions of uneducated Americans holding? Any? Minimum wage? Second question: are illegals taking the jobs these Americans would normally hold?

In some areas, the United States and other western nations have stopped advancements so that financial resources could be spent on the poorer in our societies. NASA is a prime example. "Why spend billions in space when we could use that money to build new schools!?" Apparently, the new schools are not helping as many as 1/3 of the students entering them.

Civilization is being drained of its ability to move forward by the demands of some to "lift up" those lower on the ladder. Civilization is being held back from advancing by the demands of those that contribute the least to sustaining it.

It is time we acknowledge that some people are going to be left behind. That attempts to minimize their numbers is a waste of resources.

Self reliance

Over the weekend I watched the Lord of the Rings: Return of the King. I read the books decades ago, own the DVDs and still love watching it. It was an amazing work putting it on the screen.

There was a scene when the men of Rohan were riding off that pulled together a thought that had been dwelling in the depths of Moria. Realizing that this story is fiction and not a docu-drama(!) I still couldn't help but think the following:

There was a time when men were self-reliant. Their allegiance to their Lord was not a "job". Their sustenance was the work of their own hands...and the hands of their wives and family. Today, men rely on a paycheck for their sustenance but it is not the same. Their allegiance is/was never offered, never received, never honored.

This is not to disrespect the women of that time. Many were as strong of character as their menfolk. Have we lost something as we have advanced? I can't help but think so. I am comforted by only one hope: that when faced with a situation like Katrina or the tsunami, a noticable percentage of the population will resume their place at the front of the lines. Maybe, that is what is behind the huge numbers of men and women enlisting in the military and serving.

I hope so, because it seems today there are many Grima Wormtongues actively trying to influence us...

The false doctrine of too many choices

Cross posted to Agnostics...

This morning's sermon at church reflected, in part, upon the problem of too many choices. Although not directly related to the subject matter, the Pastor commented on how we in America have such a bounty of, well, everything, that we lack the emptiness necessary for a longing for God.

Ignoring the religious issues she was trying to pinpoint, she noted that Tofler in his Future Shock predicted that our society would reach a point where people would recoil from the excess of choices. Over the years, his point of view has been regurgitated over and over again to promote either an economic or political position usually supporting some kind of restriction on freedom.

What was interesting to me was the echo I heard of Joe Biden this morning on TW. His concern was that people in the Middle East didn't have the same kind of definition about freedom that we did, and we might not like the kind of freedom they want. He feared that President Bush, naively, thought they did.

I want to be clear, if my subject title failed to be, that the very concept of too many choices is false. Let me start with an example:

It is 10:30pm tonight. You can go to bed and get some sleep; stay up and watch TV, stay up and read; stay up and have some intimate time with a spouse/partner; stay up and play a game; stay up and blog; stay up and eat; go out and party; what you say? too many choices?

Nonsense, the choice is to go to bed or stay awake. If you choose to go to bed, sleep is soon to follow. If you choose not to, then you have other choices.

A second example (one used on me many years ago by someone that wanted to impose limits on the number of cereals available (I kid you not...)

Walking down the cereal aisle there are literally a hundred different choices. No one can reasonably make an informed choice on each one. Therefore, we need to limit the number of cereals to one or two in each category.

I have three criteria for a morning cereal: it has to have sugar already on it (I hate having to add my own); it has to have at least 5 servings (and since I average 10oz each morning, that means more than 50oz) and it has to cost around 10 cents an oz. There are three that meet those criteria, Frosted Flakes, Frosted Cheerios and Kellogg's Raisin Bran. It takes me about 10 minutes a year to verify that nothing has changed in the aisle and those three remain viable choices. On sale, Frosted Mini Wheats and Lucky Charms add some variety.

The first thing I listen to when someone tells me there are too many choices, is what choices I have available to me, they want to limit. This morning, my Pastor wanted us to consider spending a little more money on church campaign items rather than presents to friends and family. We have so many competitors for our dollars, shouldn't we limit the ones that make us feel good, and help those more unfortunate than ourselves? (Didn't like the construction of that sentence? Preferred, "less fortunate". Tough, my choice!)

The problem most people have that complain there are too many choices is they don't like the choices other people are making. Rather than complain about their choices (and in doing so question their freedom to make their own choices), they complain there were too many choices to begin with. If we limit the choices to a few, then more people would choose their choice.

What makes people feel overwhelmed by choices? Lack of purpose. I walk into the cereal aisle with a clear idea of what I am looking for. The vast number of choices fail my criteria on more than one issue. Knowing what I am looking for helps me to make my choices easily.

The money I earn has a specific purpose. Demands on me to spend it a particular way fail to sway me at all because I already know where it is going. Bush chose to deal with Iraq, many on the left offered up "other choices" so as to distract from his purpose. When that failed, the next argument was "too many choices" expressed as "We can't be the world's policeman."

Externally, there can never be too many choices. With 6 billion people on the earth, every option will have some that prefer it. The more choices, the more freedom people have. It is only the lack of will, the lack of purpose that create in people a frustration with the choices available to them. And for others, the cornucopia of choices means less people will join them in their choice, and that freedom isn't the same freedom they wish others to have.

Two Points

What to do when you have a small following and two posts....?

Item 1. John Bolton has resigned (before being fired...hey, that is what it is when you are not renewed...fired). Bush should NOT name a replacement. The argument can be the best person for the job already had it....second best is not appropriate for the first among equals.


Item 2. A civil society. I am tired of the vulgarity that passes for dialogue. On Thursday I was picking up Victoria from a function and a regular participant had an IMPEACH BUSH pin. I tapped it and suggested he needed to do something illegal first. She then pointed to the IMPEACH CHENEY FIRST pin next to it and exclaimed "I was kinda hoping someone would, you know, shoot him on this trip." My response was "That is very rude, and very unChristian of you to desire the murder of someone just because you dislike them."

The reality is that she wasn't kinda hoping...she was PRAYING for it. I listen (not by choice) to comics and their routines are packed with vulgar, profane tirades. People walking down the street, standing in line at the store, lace their conversation with profanity and vulgarity as if it were a sprinkling of powered sugar on feces. (Yes, I was thinking sh**, but am trying to make a point.)

It has become unacceptable to be polite. It has become acceptable to be vulgar in virtually any company or setting. And it should stop.

I am not asking for a "Victorian" purge. Can each of us, as individuals, strive to call out vulgarity when it occurs, state profanity is unacceptable in our conversations with others? Can we not be polite to others? I like, and thank when it happens, a door held open for me. No one has held a chair for me in decades so I don't hold out much hope there!

Last week a Judge told opposing counsel that his actions had disrespected the Court and debtor's counsel (Victoria) and put him on warning that it would not be tolerated. He then imposed fees against him, something he seldom does.

Respect for ourselves, each other and strangers we meet is the first step in a civil society. We must begin to strive for it, or the culture rot we all see clearly will destroy all that we have accomplished.

Green space

I snippet of conversation overheard:

"we are fast running out of greenspace...we need more aggressive action against the developers..."

If Texas had the population density of Manhattan NY, we could fit 17 billion people into Texas. In other words, one state in the United States could hold the entire population of the planet and their children, and probably their children's children.

How much greenspace do we need?

Tracy

Slander? Mistake?

John Kerry has stated:

"If anyone thinks that a veteran, someone like me, who's been fighting my entire career to provide for veterans, to fight for their benefits, to help honor what their service is, if anybody thinks that a veteran would somehow criticize more than 140,000 troops serving in Iraq and not the president and his people who put them there, they're crazy," he said.

Well, I served in the military and I am not stupid Senator. My brother served in the military and he is not stupid. My nephew has served in Iraq and he is not stupid. But apparently the only one that is crazy is you Senator:

"I would like to talk, representing all those veterans, and say that several months ago in Detroit, we had an investigation at which over 150 honorably discharged and many very highly decorated veterans testified to war crimes committed in Southeast Asia, not isolated incidents but crimes committed on a day-to-day basis with the full awareness of officers at all levels of command....

They told the stories at times they had personally raped, cut off ears, cut off heads, taped wires from portable telephones to human genitals and turned up the power, cut off limbs, blown up bodies, randomly shot at civilians, razed villages in fashion reminiscent of Genghis Khan, shot cattle and dogs for fun, poisoned food stocks, and generally ravaged the countryside of South Vietnam in addition to the normal ravage of war, and the normal and very particular ravaging which is done by the applied bombing power of this country.

Our experience is that you will, hand have disparaged the troops fighting in the field.

Apologize for a botched joke. You and your supporters have demanded President Bush admit to a mistake in Iraq and apologize when you can't even do so for a botched joke?