What I did on my summer vacation....

Last week we had the opportunity to take our first vacation in 3 years. It was only for 8 days but at least we got away.

We booked the vacation on Thursday and spent most of Friday trying to tie up loose ends. We drove to my parents in Chicago on Friday evening, arriving around 8. My mother was nice enough to get up at 5am to drive us to the airport (10 minutes away). We checked in and worked our way through security. CJ said that the TSA people were nice but treated us like cattle! I thought they were efficient, professional and polite and I thanked them for their work. After putting on our sandals again(!), we headed for the gate. The plane boarded and took off on time. The flight was enjoyable and CJ took some great pictures.

We arrived in Southern California at 9am local and picked up our car (2006 Dodge Charger - big car, 24-26mpg). Instead of heading for the hotel (in Calabasas), we headed to Palm Springs. Lunch was pizza and cost almost $40! A drive over the mountains and Riverside County was enjoyable - especially the short rain, the only rain we would encounter the entire time there.

We headed for the hotel and arrived just after check in time. We stayed at the Good Nite Inn at the Malibu Canyon exit of the 101. We had found this hotel several years ago and found it both nice and convenient. A little more wandering and we stopped at a grocery store to pick up some supplies. One item: orange juice. Victoria's diabetes responds well to OJ if she gets a little low on sugar and we always keep some on hand. It only cost $10 for 1/2 gallon - we didn't notice until after we returned to the room.

Sunday we went to Santa Barbara. Victoria wants to consider this town as a possible retirement spot. We decided to stop in at an open house to get a feel for prices and the types of homes available. We found one in a nice, average neighborhood, far from the beach and hills. 1100 sq feet, 3 bedrooms, 1 1/2 baths. 6k sq ft lot. Nice backyard, nothing special, small patio, local plants. $1,295,000.

Yep. $1.3 million dollars. We found an older home, less "upgrades", corner lot about the same size also 3 bedrooms, 2 baths for $880,000. Realtor said the children of the owner who had just moved to a nursing home had lowered the price for a 'quick sale'.

The last house we saw was near the high school Victoria had found that had excellent student results and test scores. CJ loved the house. Nice upgrades (cabinets, floors, counters) but still only about 1200 sq feet, 6k lot and 3 bedrooms, 2 baths. $875,000.

We knew that California prices for real estate were going to be higher but...

On Saturday, we stopped in Rancho California for ice cream. I picked up the local paper and looked in the Real Estate section. I lived just 10 minutes north of there 25 years ago when Rancho California had just over 5k people, one little strip center, Winchester still had wood side walks and Temecula was a couple of thousand people, mostly ranches and Callaway Vineyards. Today there are over 180,000 people in the area. Of the 3 pages of real estate, one had a half page ad listing 20 homes. Every single home was for more than $500,000 and every single home was bank owned.

The realtor in Santa Barbara had been talking to others at the open house complaining that the media was blowing the foreclosure issue way out of proportion. We don't think so...

Monday we spent the day (mostly) at the beach in Malibu!! The water was COLD! But we had a good time. Tuesday we traveled around, including stopping at UCLA for a t-shirt for Victoria. Wednesday we did a little beach time and some more wandering in Santa Barbara. First stop was UCSB for a t-shirt and we then stopped by every home listed for sale in the Sunday home guide in Goleta (a suburb! of Santa Barbara and home to the high school). Nothing was less than $600,000.

Thursday was another beach day. We spent most of it in Laguna Nigel in south Orange County. If it were possible, the water was colder! Later, we headed south and found a great beach at Torrey Pines State Park just north of San Diego. The water was warmer, the beach was great sand and the waves were great. Too bad we didn't get there til 6:30pm. CJ got a great sunset picture.

Friday was a free day. I suggested a quick trip to the mountains and Victoria suggested a return trip to Torrey Pines. We headed for Mount Wilson and a great view of the valley. Unfortunately, on the way back down I hit a rock from a small rock slide. I didn't know it then, but it either damaged the oil filter or punched a small hole in the oil pan. We found it later in Palmdale when I stopped for gas and the oil just flowed from under the car. We found a Barnes and Noble nearby, called the rental car (Dollar) roadside service and they said they would get a replacement to us in a couple of hours. It was 1pm. 2pm. 3pm. 4pm. 5pm - hey, where is the replacement car? 20 more minutes was the reply.... 5:30pm, 6pm...finally. Dodge Magnum. Too late to finish the mountain trip, too late for the beach...we went back to the hotel disappointed. We did our laundry and packed up.

Saturday. This was check out day, but our plane was not due to leave til 12:25am on Sunday. Victoria suggested Torrey Pines, I wanted to hit Ojai (our target for Friday). I got lost and it took us 2 hours to get there instead of 1. It took us an extra 45 minutes to get out of there because I started back the wrong way! Three hours later we were in a traffic jam just in San Diego county. I got off the freeway 5 miles north of Torrey Pines and wasted 45 minutes getting there using the ocean highway....we arrived at Torrey Pines at 6:45. I got a little time in the surf, CJ got another picture of the sunset and Victoria didn't get any time in the water. It was a complete BUST. My fault. I should have just ignored the Ojai jaunt and headed for the beach.... We traveled up to the airport, dropping off the car at 10:30.

At Midway Airport in Chicago, there was free wireless internet...no such thing at Ontario in California. We boarded the plane on time, there were extra open seats to do a little stretching out on, but the plane was 30 minutes late leaving - maintenance paperwork...

We arrived in Chicago at 6am and caught a cab to my parents. We all crashed...quietly.

We put almost 1800 miles on the rental, we averaged 25 mpg and paid an average of 2.75/gal.
The airfare cost us just over $200 each, roundtrip, with all the extra fees. The hotel was about $85 a night. Not an expensive week all things considered. We relaxed. The average daytime temperature at the hotel was over 100 the entire week. The beaches were considerably cooler. Bad storms hit on Friday but missed us.

CJ took almost 150 pictures on our new 7 mega pixel camera and both of us got some nice tanning (Victoria uses lots of sunscreen and avoids a lot of exposure!)

How was your summer?

Wrong line...

This morning I watched Meet the Press. I usually don't but the dvr didn't catch Fox News Sunday and I missed it again this afternoon.

When is someone in Washington going to learn/listen/realize that the loss of the Republicans in 2006 came about because of three factors, two minor, one major: one|minor: corruption. Every conservative expects democrats to be corrupt, we just hope it will be of the minor, personal kind. We don't expect the conservatives to be corrupt - except for the hypocrisy of sexual misdeeds. Cunningham was just so over the top... two|minor: pork. Every thinking person knows a politician is going to bring home some pork for his/her district. New highway, big contract - lots of jobs...good pork. No one wants 5 million for someones back yard museum that no one is going to visit...you know, a million here, a billion there...soon it is real money and the "conservatives" seemed interested in only real money pork. And then there was

three|major: immigration. How in the hell ANYONE can think that immigration reform as proposed was a good idea I'll never know. And it only got worse. John McCain has lost any chance of being president with his support of the reform this spring. Of all the stupid, dangerous and corrupt ideas to come out of Washington....

THE IRAQ WAR DID NOT COST THE REPUBLICANS THE CONGRESS: The republican congress cost the republicans the Congress. When a current presidential candidate realizes this and actually begins to say it in his campaign, THEN we have a candidate, and not a day sooner.

Let me ....

Pss a few people off....

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For their population, blacks have too much influence. Liberals have allowed blacks to play the victim card for so long that blacks believe they have a right, and the rest of us have an obligation to compensate them for every perceived ill falling on them.

1/2 of all murders caused by black men. Despite the fact that the majority of those murders are in fact against other blacks is IRRELEVANT. What kind of crap is that? 5% of the population is causing 1/2 the murders? I read recently that 70% of all births to black women are to unwed women. The men are either cowards, or boys with dicks too large for the minuscule balls attached to them.

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NASA has issued revised numbers for climate temperatures. The revision effectively eliminates global temperatures as an argument for global warming. However, even though there might be something to it, I want an answer the following questions: 1) how many weather stations are there in a: the Sahara desert; the Gobi desert, the Siberian tundra, the Amazon; b) the United States, China, India, Russia, Mexico; c) the Canary Islands, the Hawaiian Islands, the Philippines; the Falklands; Madagascar. 2) how many weather stations are within 1000 yds of a parking lot, an air conditioned building, paved roads, manicured lawns; 3) how many weather stations have been operating for more than 10 years, 20 years, 50 years.

Don't give me shit about core samples unless you can tell me how much precipitation has fallen annually for each year the core sample represents and how much that differed from average.

Finally, assuming for just a second that you can prove even the slightest increase in temperatures, tell me what temperature is the CORRECT temperature for Earth...so that we know if we are cooler or warmer than that number....please make sure you have as much "scientific evidence" for your assertion of the "CORRECT" temperature as you do for the "fact" that we are currently --warming--.

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Right now, today, only one person has a chance of getting the Democratic nomination for president....Mrs. William Jefferson Clinton. As many, if not most Democrats think that Willy was the second coming....it appears most democrats have decided that they are ok with the first husband getting regular bjs....from just about anything walking over the age of 18 ....because at least it won't happen in the Oval Office anymore.

Right now, today, only two people have a chance of getting the Republican nomination for President, and one of the two stands as much chance as someone getting a snowball off at Tiger Woods this past weekend. Giuliani is the most likely, but in order to do it, the far right of the republican base will have to prove they can be just as pathetic as the democrats. A 50 something man takes advantage of a 20-something intern and the democrats practically fall over themselves to claim such an event as consent between two adults thereby erasing 30 years of getting people to see such an event as at least sexual harassment Republicans will be falling all over themselves making excuses for someone that 1) has been married three times and 2) moved his mistress into his home prior to the last divorce.....yea, family values all over that one.

If the democrats are suffering from BDS, it can equally be said that republicans are suffering from CDS.

Frankly, I doubt the country would be in worse shape if we just ignored everyone currently running (or thinking of running: Gore, Thompson, Gingrich) and picked someone out of a phone book.

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I think the Fed (and the central bank of Germany, France, Japan and the UK) should just let the stupids that loaned money to the stupids that agreed to take them each suffer their fates. We recently had clients that make 30k a year NET come in to try and save their home....the mortgage payment of which was 26k a year. They had the same income when they got the loan several years ago. Can ANYONE justify such blatant stupidity? I can't get a credit card but some moron thinks a $1200 a month mortgage is ok for someone making 8.75 an hour?

In the early 80's in California, people were getting 2nd, 3rd and 4th mortgages (all with 1 or 2 year balloons) because property values were rising at 5 and 6% A WEEK. DUH. If you think anything is different in Florida, Nevada, California or Arizona over the last 5 years, you'd be wrong, it's worse.

Wait till people start realizing the IRS treats a foreclosure AS INCOME to the poor saps that lost their home...can you say tax burden?

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Mainstream Press couldn't tell a story from a fable if it hit them square in the face. Did you know that Obama's #1 best buddy, mentor and supporter is under indictment? NO? Really...

Did you know that the average corporal in Iraq is a bigger asshole than the majority of major league sports figures? Really, apparently war does that to you....but I don't remember Bonds or Vick serving....

Can you name me ONE national media person who you DON'T know which party they support?

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Does anyone believe that rap should have a first amendment right to call for the killing or raping of anyone? Really? what do you think I THINK?

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Lastly: how many of you with internet access at work have viewed at least ONE youtube video in the last 4 weeks at work?

You're part of the problem too....

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Addendum: Consensus among scientists

I don't give a shite if every single scientist on the planet THINKS global warming is real; I don't give a shite if every single scientist on the planet BELIEVES global warming is real; I don't even give a shite if every single scientist on the planet AGREES global warming is real; because until 2 different scientists, using proven objective data, and verifiable scientific methods PROVES that the Earth is warming, every thought, belief and agreement is exactly what you would expect coming from assholes, shite.

First Principles

Is it possible that the Peter Principle applies to politics also? Is it possible that our elected leaders represent not the best of the best, but the best of the worst? Is that in fact the definition of the better of two evils? Looking at the presidential contenders currently available, can ANYONE really believe that in a nation of 300 million, THIS is the best we can do?

Frankly, absent a political job, most of the candidates couldn't get hired at Burger King. Mitt might be the exception to the rule.

Let us look at two issues: immigration and global warming. First, immigration. If ANY of the supporters of the current immigration bill would spend one day talking to people that actually, legally, immigrated to the United States in the 50s or 60's - like my parents - they would know that those people are overwhelmingly PISSED at the current bill. I have supported immigration since I was old enough to understand it. My parents benefited, as I have, from their presence here. However, they spent years working on getting citizenship. All they/we see now is a large group of people that think they deserve citizenship and their enablers.

If someone broke into a health club and said they just wanted to get fit, does anyone think the club owners would just say "Well of course, here is a membership, on us!"

Bally's reported today that 47 people caught breaking into their facilities would receive free memberships. Police applauded the move as a reasonable accommodation for people that had no where else to turn. Representative Dufus from the local district released a statement calling for police to stop weighing anyone accused of a crime. Bally's stated the memberships were warranted as no one else would sign up for them anymore.....

Global warming: Mars has warmed up about as much as the Earth over the last 20 years. I keep hearing that said in debates about global warming but it seems the only ones listening to it, are those saying it.

Fine, conceded, we are warmer now than 20 years ago. SO WHAT? It doesn't mean anything. Certainly not global catastrophe. I don't care what ANYONE says about climate change UNLESS they can tell me exactly what the impact on PLANT life will be in a warmer world. Because, frankly, we are at the top of the food chain and if warming HELPS the bottom of the food chain, we are going to be much better off.

And, will the people in the developed nations please get a life. Any more egocentric and I am going to start a mirror factory. The carbon footprint of the majority of the people of the world looks like a footprint in the dirt BECAUSE IT IS A FOOTPRINT IN THE DIRT. We can reduce carbon dioxide emissions dramatically if we just eliminated...oh.....4 billion people? You know...the increase in the population over the last 100 years?

We have been having really great weather here the last week or so. I have been able to spend evenings on the deck looking up at the stars. There appear to be about 12 people on the planet like me....do they all think like I do that given the UNIVERSE, we are acting like a bunch of ants?

An Open Letter to Senator Feingold:

Dear Senator:

A long time ago, living in another state, I had the audacity to send a letter to my Senator. Adlai Stevenson was his name. In it, I voiced my opinion on a topic that I disagreed with the Senator on. I received a nice reply, first acknowledging our disagreement, then stating the reasons for his position. He further appreciated that I understood that he represented all of the people of Illinois, not just me or those that disagreed with me. It was a great personal letter, from a great Senator, to a young constituent.

Recently, I sent a similar email to you. We had met in person on Palm Sunday and had a nice, simple conversation. I wanted to let you know that although there were a large number of people in Wisconsin that agreed with many of your positions, particularly on Iraq, that there were constituents that did not agree.

What I received in return about 2 weeks later was a canned response, reproduced and commented on below. A four sentence personal response from you would have taken 1 minute of your precious time. I realize you represent several million people and that you probably receive thousands of emails/letters. Your response to me reminds me of the movie character Scrooged played by Bill Murray and I hope at some time you might have a similar awakening.

Dear Ms. Coyle,

Thank you for contacting me regarding the war in Iraq. I
appreciate hearing from you about one of the most important issues
facing our country today.

Really? Did you even see my email? Did it rise to the top of your staff's list of things to discuss with you during your busy schedule? I doubt it.

I strongly support our troops who have courageously answered the
call to service, but I remain deeply concerned that the President's
policies in Iraq are undermining our top national security priority:
fighting al Qaeda and its affiliates that attacked our country on
September 11, 2001. In October 2002, I voted against the
resolution authorizing the President to use force in Iraq because I
questioned the shifting justifications for this mission and feared
that it would weaken our capacity to combat terrorism.

Sir, your support of our troops is nothing more than lip-service. You fail to understand the nature of their mission. You question their very effort. You ignore the proclamations of the very terrorists you claim to be against. Iraq is the front line on the war on terror. Is there any doubt that terrorists are involved when the vast majority of deaths occurring in Iraq are civilian, caused by car bombs and suicide bombers? By your own words, you have been actively opposed to military involvement in Iraq since 2002. What sir is an appropriate use of our military? For almost 10 years Iraq was shooting at our aircraft patrolling the No-Fly zones with little fear of reprisal. For over 20 years, Iraq murdered it's own citizens. For over 10 years, Iraq manipulated UN sanctions. For over 10 years, Iraq maintained its ability to resume chemical, biological and nuclear programs, waiting for the day sanctions ended. A day that was fast approaching. Finally, Iraq openly supported terrorists in other parts of the world - specifically sending money to the families of suicide bombers in Israel. Iraq had attacked two neighbors in 10 years. A threat sir?

Since the war began, I have repeatedly pressed the Administration
to provide a clear strategy for success in Iraq and a strategy for
defeating the global terrorist networks that threaten the United
States. Unfortunately, the Administration continues to pursue a
misguided and open-ended military mission in Iraq that has
diverted resources and attention from other places around the
world where terrorist networks that threaten the U.S. are operating.
I am deeply concerned by the President's decision in January to
increase troop levels in Iraq, which ignores the wishes of the
American people and members of both parties.

What you have demanded was a program for retreat. There is no "clear strategy for success". Such a childish notion about something as impossible to predict as WAR is beneath your apparent ability or it suggests a level of dis ingeniousness unbecoming a United States Senator. Your characterization that the military mission is "misguided" suggests that you think Iraq would have been better off left alone. What a pleasant prospect for millions of Iraqis.

What other places around the world would you send our troops to Senator? Darfur? Malasyia? Afghanistan? Great Britain? Spain? How about Venezuela? WHERE Senator are terrorist networks threatening the US other than where they stand toe to toe with our soldiers?

Since when should a war be fought using polls? What constitutional section gives the populace operational control over the deployment of the troops? What constitutional section gives the CONGRESS operational control over the deployment of the troops? When do you think it is supporting the troops to demand their retreat, not because they are failing on the battlefield, but because it has become unpopular at home?

NO ONE LIKES WAR. Everyone would like it to end. It ends however not when we leave, but when the enemy surrenders or dies. Taking our troops from Iraq will not end the bloodshed in Iraq, it will only increase it. Taking our troops from Iraq will not placate terrorists, only embolden them. Taking our troops from Iraq and sending them....where? will not strengthen our forces, only demoralize them.

I am working to bring an end to our involvement in this war. I
recently introduced legislation with Senate Majority Leader Harry
Reid (D-NV) and eight other Senators to safely redeploy United
States troops from Iraq. Our bill would require the President to
begin redeploying troops within 120 days and would require
redeployment to be completed by March 31, 2008, with three
narrow exceptions.

Sir, unless you have some ability to negotiate on the behalf of the United States with the terrorists, your efforts to bring an end to our involvement in this war is nothing more than politics, and may be something much more dangerous. Where did you, when did you, introduce legislation calling on the terrorists to stop blowing up children? When were you on the Senate floor calling for Muslims to rise up against fanatics in their religion?

Senator, what is the purpose of our military? Do you even understand their role? Our troops are not supposed to be safe on bases far from battle. They are supposed to be killing those that kill others. They are supposed to be on the front line. And Senator, can you please point out where in the Constitution you and your fellow Senators have any role dictating to the President operational control of troops on the battlefield?

You may also be interested to know that on
April 26, 2007, I voted for H.R. 1591, the fiscal year 2007
emergency supplemental bill. I was pleased that this bill included
binding language that will effectively end the current misguided
military mission in Iraq and require the President to begin
redeploying U.S. troops from Iraq in 120 days. I encourage you to
visit my website for a more detailed account of my work on Iraq at
<http://www.feingold.senate.gov>.

The "misguided military mission". How does this position support the troops? What you apparently mean by support is to protect the little boys and girls from getting hurt by the bad mens killing civilians in Iraq. I am sure the troops are flattered by your compassion. Your efforts on behalf of the civilians in Iraq is equally appreciated by them, I'm sure.

Your continued support is doing more damage to our troops than your ignorance of them, so if you don't mind, please stop supporting the troops. With support like yours, terrorists will soon have an open field in which to ply their trade.

I am also working hard to help ensure effective oversight and
accountability for reconstruction efforts in Iraq. The economic
costs of this war have been staggering, and I am dismayed that we
are running up debts to pay for this war that the next generation of
Americans will be called upon to pay. I continue to push for
accountability and transparency in the use of taxpayer money in
Iraq. I led efforts to create and then extend the life of the Special
Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction (SIGIR), whose office is
charged with making sure that U.S. reconstruction dollars in Iraq
are not subject to waste, fraud or abuse.

Why not spend your time working on effective oversight and accountability for reconstruction efforts in NEW ORLEANS? At least there, we have some control over the land...as you know...it actually belongs to us. How about pushing for accountability and transparency in congressional spending bills?

As a member of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, the
Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, and the Senate
Committee on the Budget, I will continue to work to end our
involvement in this war. Thanks again for contacting me about
this extremely important issue. I look forward to hearing from you
in the future.

As a member of those two important committees, I am concerned that your stated positions are doing more to undermine our country than help it. I am sure you believe you are acting responsibly and in a manner you think is consistent with the best interests of this country. But if your response to my email is any indication, you are as impotent as the rest of the political class. Frankly, I would appreciate your actions be more consistent with the senior Senator of Wisconsin: you know, more seen, less heard Kohl.

Oh, I am sure you will not be looking forward to any more missives from me.

Not so sincerely this time,
Tracy Coyle
Madison, WI

Gun Deaths

I generally have ignored the VT murders. I don't know anyone that attends the campus; I live almost 1,000 miles away from it. It has no real impact on my life. But I am not a hermit. I read a comment on a blog post comparing the death rate from guns in Australia and the US. The commenter noted the countries are very similar in many cultural ways but that we had twice as many deaths from guns. Why she wondered.

I thought about race. I had a stereotype in my head that blacks died as a result of guns in much higher proportions than whites. I went in search of evidence to support my stereotype. And found it...but in looking at the page I found, there was something else MUCH MORE STARTLING.

55% of gun deaths in 2004....were suicides. 25% of those under 18 and 74% of those over 40 were suicides. The vast majority were white men. It appears that if a gun is in the house, the more likely event is that the man is going to use it to kill himself.

I am a street thug...

Victoria informed me this morning that some people believe that plans are in place for the simultaneous denotation of seven nukes on American soil. We discussed what cities would be targets (my picks: NY, LA, SF, DC, Chicago, Kansas City and Atlanta - that covers ports, financial markets, telecommunications and government) She asked where I would want to "ride them out" and suggested right here is fine....unless Minneapolis is targeted, we are upwind from the closest strike in Chicago.

I also suggested to her that Islam as a religion would be in jeopardy and that Mecca would glow for centuries. I said that people like me would seek out Moslems for destruction. I thought, did not say then, but do here, that if such an attack occured, I will be one of those street thugs that physically attacks any "peace" activists or "anti-war" protesters.

Consider me to have jumped the shark if you will ...

Reality has left the building...

I listen to Rush and Hannity. I listen to Air America. I am pretty sure the two groups are living on different planets...or at least in different universes.

I look at the housing market - mortgage lenders folding like chairs after a public hearing - and the steady increase in foreclosures; I look at the words coming out of people that watch the stock markets for a living and markets that apparently have no connection to those pundits.

I think of a dozen or so candidates for President that have raised over $125 million in the last
three months for their bids and the 70% increase in bankruptcy filings.

I see AG Gonzo testify before Congress and wonder, did he not know he was going to be testifying? I heard he was preparing for his testimony but they had to have been talking about someone else...cause that pod talking yesterday made less sense than an Elmo doll with a broken string.

I hear Harry Reid say that we have lost the war, when the only shots we seem to be firing are coming from some deranged idiot in Virginia.

Am I the only one caught in some reality vortex, unaffected but able to view the shifting, twisting, contradictory realities?

Or is the world actually just fine and I have lost my mind?

Iraq Derangement Syndrome

Heard an hour ago on Air America on the possible reasons for the VT killer's rampage:

The Iraq war has driven all of us insane.

Yep....the Iraq war drove the VT killer to kill 32 and wound dozens more.

Gun Question

Here it is: If a student at VT had pulled a gun out and killed the killer of 32 after he had killed only 4, would he be a hero, or arrested for having a gun on campus?

Thousands are killed by drunk drivers every year....is anyone contemplating additional restrictions on drinking or driving? Say life in prison for a 2nd DUI? Or requiring the breathalizer equipment be installed on every vehicle?

Just asking...

New rights

Can anyone tell me when the Right Not to be Offended was written into some law? Because, I really need to know what the penalties are...."don't do the crime if you can't do the time" and all.

Everyone claiming Imus was an ass are 1) not saying anything new, and 2) need to grow up. "Mommy, he made fun of me. He called me a NAME...." whiners.

Stinkin culture

Name one country other than the United States that if it ceased to exist today, would be missed tomorrow.

Moderate + Mainstream

I am right of center....fiscally. I am left of center....socially.

I believe that government is the worst use of our money. It is a necessary evil with regard to those things it was originally empowered to do. It has however, stepped into many things it does not belong in. The less money it has, the less meddling it does.

I am pro-abortion...for the first two trimesters....then opposed on virtually any grounds.

I am against a single-payer medical system. I have family in England and I have had medical care in Canada. Talk to the average person in either country and they will literally spit their hatred of their medical systems. I am willing to support a government program of vouchers for medical care AND schools.

I am pro-education, but anti-teachers unions. One of the worst features of our educational system is tenure. It should be abolished. I am opposed to unions in general. My father was a shop steward. In Chicago. I have seen first hand the terrible toll unions can inflict on workers and businesses.

I am pro-military. I served, my father served, my brother served (and retired from) and my nephew is currently serving. My support is total. (Did I support the actions inAbu-Grab, no, don't be stupid)

I am pro-1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and so on amendment rights. I am anti-ACLU.

My positions are MODERATE. They are shared by the VAST majority of Americans.

However, our media - all of it - has reached a point where people on the left can not tell a moderate liberal position and where people on the right can not tell a moderate conservative position. Increasingly, the only voices you hear on TV, cable or radio are absolute conservatives and absolute liberals. I chose the adjective absolute instead of far-left/right because someone doesn't have to be far-either to be an absolutist. Victoria holds virtually no conservative positions (I have just sat here for 5 minutes to try and think of one with no luck) but I wouldn't call her far-left.

It has become "normal" for the far-right/left to eat their own. Code Pink camping out on Pelosi's stoop? Air American couldn't espouse a moderate position if it's life depended on it. Ann Coulter has become a parody of herself. The religious right sees Satan in every picture/video/liberal.

People are tuning out media. Networks are losing viewers (they are not going to cable); newspapers are dead - momentum is all they have going for them right now. The average radio or cable show has a couple million listeners/viewers....many shared. (The Air America crowd watchesOberman, the Rush crowd watches O'Reilly)

People of good intentions on the left get shouted down by the right because if the right gives an inch, the left takes a mile. People of good intentions on the right get shouted down by the left because if the left gives an inch, the right takes a mile. No one wants to give the left/right any more ammunition than they already have so the moderates shut up and leave the field to the fringe - now called "mainstream"

Rush has said that moderates do not get anything done. Only those that take a stand firmly Conservative(Liberal) accomplish great things. He might be right about great things, but every day, every where, moderates stock theWalMart shelves, deliver the gas to the stations, serve in our military and serve in the soup kitchens.

I am proud to be a moderate. Someday, we might even elect one.

Top Picks - Science Fiction

My top picks for Science Fiction, book

1. Battlefield Earth, by L. Ron Hubbard (say whatever you want about Scientology, the book is a first rate read)

2 Jumper by Stephen Gould. I spent months after first reading it thinking about what I would do! I decided to re-read it!

3. White Wing, by Gordon Kendall. A complete surprise and worth packing in your favorite suitcase after reading it...because it is worth reading every time.

4. Ender's Game, by Orson Scott Card. I didn't know, til Ender did and easily the best of the series.

5. There are two series, any one from which is a top five:
Sten series (8 books) by Chris Bunch and Alan Cole, I still tell the jokes.
Honor Harrington series (10? books) by David Weber. Is it luck if you pick the right club, call the shot, land it exactly, and sink it from 100 yds?


I just finished reading Old Man's War based on a blog recommendation and it is already a top ten. After another read sometime late this year, it will probably move up some.

Mortgage Fraud

One of the questions swirling around bankruptcy attorney circles is: where is the fraud?

We are seeing people facing mortgages where the monthly payments are increasing 40% or more in a 2-2.5 year period. Chapter 13 bankruptcy trustees are beginning to require proposed plans deal with the mortgage payments at their highest possible level rather than what the loan currently calls for.

It started me thinking. Everyone (that supported bankruptcy reform) is going blame the consumer for agreeing to mortgages that they had no chance of ever repaying. The consumer is going to blame the mortgage originator that told them they could refinance before the adjustments started. The mortgage originators are going to offer, the consumer knew the risks...of course, we are watching mortgage lenders flee the scene like cockroaches.

A typical bond is sold based on the interest rate earned. Because the rate of the bond is fixed, as interest rates move, the price moves inversely. Mortgage back securities (MBS) operate in a generally similar way. Although there are many more factors and risks involved, the issue is "what is the rate of return"?

For a good overview of the MBS market, check out this Fannie Mae page.

That said, let me share some numbers.
A $200,000 loan, 3/27 ARM, initial rate 8.5%, index 9.5%+LIBOR, 6 month adj, 11.5% initial cap, initial monthly payment $1,537.83.

Based on current LIBOR, if this loan was issued in 2004(it was), then on Jan 1, 2009, the payment will be $2,401.51, a 56% increase. This does not include any amounts for, or changes in, property taxes or insurance.

If the loan goes to maturity, the effective rate over the term would be 10.48%
Ignoring all the risk factors, what would the basis for purchase price of this loan be?
The 10.48% yield?
The 8.5% initial yield?
The 9.52% index yield?

Assuming a Fannie Mae MBS was priced to yield 6.5% on a pool of 1000 of these?

Value of 10.48% yield $322,557.53 x 1000
Value of 8.5% yield $261,538.46 x 1000
Value of 9.52% yield $292,923.08 x 1000

If I borrowed $2,000,000 from you at 5.5% and loaned it to 10 people at the 3/27 ARM rate indicated. The potential profit on reselling the loans in 90-120 days is enormous. Of course defaults and early repayments seriously affect yields...so as a buyer of the MBS, I might be a little miffed if the underlying loans crash and burn.

The scenario I see unfolding (originally) is that as more money is made, it chases more and more potential loans with huge index spreads...this would drive DOWN the initial interest rates as lenders compete. As the market begins to crash (when there are no more people obtaining loans (you have already dreged the bottom), then the interest rates are going to climb to ...the index yield, 9.52%, at least.

What happens to a bond price when the interest rate climbs 3000 basis points?

Care to answer Fannie Mae? Chairman Bernanke?

There may be no interest rate acceptable to the market for these securities. If that happens, the MBS market will crash and the largest holder of MBS is Fannie Mae.

Bernanke may have no good options to deal with the situation. Large banks and securities firms will have no choice but to purchase the MBS originators at losses to protect their own positions as large scale bankruptcies would all but eliminate funding for the MANY hundreds of billions of loans resetting with millions of borrowers unable to qualify for a standard loan.

Let me be a scare-monger. It is possible that as many as 90% of ARMs sold in the last 2-3 years will default eventually.

And who do you think will be blamed?

Lying

I want to say something about lying. It seems to be happening more frequently.

People are getting up in front of cameras and opening their mouths and what is coming out is so blatantly a lie that you'd expect everyone to audibly gasp. But it doesn't happen. No one calls them on their lie. No one questions their lie. Lies. Flat out, clear cut, lies.

My problem is that EVERYONE lies a little. For a long time I tried really hard to either tell the truth or shut up. But little things happen: the boss is in but doesn't want to talk to someone "sorry, not available". I am pretty good at avoiding big lies...one of the reasons people tend to ask me for my opinion is they trust what comes out, even if they don't like what they hear.

We expect politicians to lie. It is part of the job description. Still, John Edwards talks about two Americas while building a 28,000 sq ft mansion; Al Gore talks about global warming while flying in private jets; the war on drugs is apparently now the war on those fighting drugs; "we support the troops"; Sandy Berger forgot about the documents in his underwear; Libby was covering for Cheney; Joe Wilson was set up;

Don't get me started on American Idol or the Oscars...

We are well down a spiraling slide of dishonesty...and I can't see anyway to stop it.

Seethuma

Research in this country is in serious need of assistance. If you believe that basic research needs more attention and you have a research bankground, I would be interested in your opinions. By invitation only.

Blog Talk Radio

A new service is available for just about anyone to host their own podcast/radio show. I will be hosting my first show today at 9:30 central. Tune in live (call in is available) or listen later!

Ketsup or Catch Up

Global Defrosting

Can someone tell me what is the correct average mean temperature for Earth? Come on, anyone? I mean, if EVERYONE believes that the Earth is getting warmer, then they should know if that is a good thing or not. Right? Just because the Earth is getting warmer in and of itself doesn't mean anything good or bad. No?

If the average mean temperature of Earth should be 4 degrees higher than it is now, then the warming is a good thing and we should help accelerate it! If it is 4 degrees lower than it is now, then we need to kill off about 4 billion people to turn the tide...anything else would be throwing ice cubes at a bonfire.

I would like to offer a different way of thinking about the rising temperature, from on now, I am going to call it global defrosting

ALERT - Vehicle Repossession in Wisconsin

A major change in Wisconsin law now allows auto loan lenders to repossess a vehicle 15 days after a notice of default has been sent (there is some question about it being 15 days from receipt of the notice but that has not been tested).

If you are someone that does not open bills until you can pay them, you might have a notice stating your are in default. You could walk out your door and find your vehicle gone with little recourse.

This is called self-help repossession and is VERY different from the previous requirement to obtain a judicial judgment.

Is this the party you want?

I know bankruptcy reform gets a lot of support from conservatives espousing personal responsibility but what happens when someone is irresponsible (of just plain stupid) and ends up with enough debt to choke a horse? Debtor's prison? The Republicans have become a special interest group for corporate interests. I do not mean that in the same sense that the looney left states it, but what is good for GM is NOT necessarily good for America anymore, as Toyota is teaching many former union workers.

Immigration helps this country in dozens of ways and as the first born of immigrants, I STRONGLY support immigration. The pandering...no, the selling out of America to ILLEGAL immigrants is as bad as selling out the troops. I don't understand why Bush and the Republicans can't see that.

How many people that complained about people like me in November (that refused to vote Republican because of their behavior despite disliking everything about the Democrats) are watching in abject horror at Republicans defecting on the GWOT, taxes, minimum wage, immigration?

The political class...oh wait, there is not supposed to be a political class....needs to be sent packing and if the current behavior doesn't encourage more of the base to leave Republican politicians flapping in the wind, then we have truly lost the base.

The Pledge

If the United States Senate passes a resolution, non-binding or otherwise, that criticizes the commitment of additional troops to Iraq that General Petraeus has asked for and that the president has pledged, and if the Senate does so after the testimony of General Petraeus on January 23 that such a resolution will be an encouragement to the enemy, I will not contribute to any Republican senator who voted for the resolution. Further, if any Republican senator who votes for such a resolution is a candidate for re-election in 2008, I will not contribute to the National Republican Senatorial Committee unless the Chairman of that Committee, Senator Ensign, commits in writing that none of the funds of the NRSC will go to support the re-election of any senator supporting the non-binding resolution.

If you agree or support this pledge, please join in signing it here

The Crusades

Recently read a post about the potential of Al Gore getting involved in the 2008 Presidential race. Also, so talk of Newt doing so. My one and only response at this time to such?

To the Rescue: The Knights in Tarnished Armor.

A final tally

Foreclosures in my area(6 counties) finished the year up 30.24%. Two counties were over 50% (Dane 57.11%, Jefferson, 54.61%). Over the last 5 years, foreclosures area wide are up over 66%. I am undecided if I will review all 2,188 foreclosures to determine their outcomes. In the past, more than half of all foreclosure filings resulted in the loss of the home.

There is no indication that the rate of foreclosures is slowing at all.

Civilization

Over the holiday I got caught up in a special about the origins of humans. All the other issues aside, the thing that caught my attention was a researchers finding that a people in Asia were descendants of the original migration out of Africa. Specifically, the people were living in a village of huts made of mud and vegetation. 25,000 years of these people living in that area had produced, mud huts.

How many Muslim nations (nations where the majority of the population are Muslim) have provided ANY significant contribution to civilization in the last...200-300 years? (Don't be pathetic by noting civilization would not exist without Middle East oil. Such a contribution could have been made fish in the North Sea also...)

Except for the mineral deposits found under their feet, would civilization be any worse off if they all just ceased to exist? I AM NOT SUGGESTING ANYTHING. I note that advancements in medicine, technology, biology and society (democratic institutions) have ALL come from areas other than those dominated by Islam.

It is not enough to look at the appalling lack of advancement in many parts of the world without noting the dangerous situation happening in the US.

Over the last decade, between 347,000 and 544,000 10th- through 12th-grade students left school each year without successfully completing a high school program (table C1). Status dropout rates represent the proportion of young people ages 16 through 24 who are out of school and who have not earned a high school credential. Status rates are higher than event rates because they include all dropouts in this age range, regardless of when they last attended school.

In October 2000, some 3.8 million young adults were not enrolled in a high school program and had not completed high school. These youths accounted for 10.9 percent of the 34.6 million 16- through 24-year-olds in the United States in 2000 (table A, figure A, and table 3). As noted with event rates, status rates declined from the early 1970s into the late 1980s, but since then have remained stable (figure 2 and table B5).

The time period indicated in the first paragraph was 1990-2000. The quotes came from this report.

My first question is: what kind of jobs are these millions of uneducated Americans holding? Any? Minimum wage? Second question: are illegals taking the jobs these Americans would normally hold?

In some areas, the United States and other western nations have stopped advancements so that financial resources could be spent on the poorer in our societies. NASA is a prime example. "Why spend billions in space when we could use that money to build new schools!?" Apparently, the new schools are not helping as many as 1/3 of the students entering them.

Civilization is being drained of its ability to move forward by the demands of some to "lift up" those lower on the ladder. Civilization is being held back from advancing by the demands of those that contribute the least to sustaining it.

It is time we acknowledge that some people are going to be left behind. That attempts to minimize their numbers is a waste of resources.

Self reliance

Over the weekend I watched the Lord of the Rings: Return of the King. I read the books decades ago, own the DVDs and still love watching it. It was an amazing work putting it on the screen.

There was a scene when the men of Rohan were riding off that pulled together a thought that had been dwelling in the depths of Moria. Realizing that this story is fiction and not a docu-drama(!) I still couldn't help but think the following:

There was a time when men were self-reliant. Their allegiance to their Lord was not a "job". Their sustenance was the work of their own hands...and the hands of their wives and family. Today, men rely on a paycheck for their sustenance but it is not the same. Their allegiance is/was never offered, never received, never honored.

This is not to disrespect the women of that time. Many were as strong of character as their menfolk. Have we lost something as we have advanced? I can't help but think so. I am comforted by only one hope: that when faced with a situation like Katrina or the tsunami, a noticable percentage of the population will resume their place at the front of the lines. Maybe, that is what is behind the huge numbers of men and women enlisting in the military and serving.

I hope so, because it seems today there are many Grima Wormtongues actively trying to influence us...

The false doctrine of too many choices

Cross posted to Agnostics...

This morning's sermon at church reflected, in part, upon the problem of too many choices. Although not directly related to the subject matter, the Pastor commented on how we in America have such a bounty of, well, everything, that we lack the emptiness necessary for a longing for God.

Ignoring the religious issues she was trying to pinpoint, she noted that Tofler in his Future Shock predicted that our society would reach a point where people would recoil from the excess of choices. Over the years, his point of view has been regurgitated over and over again to promote either an economic or political position usually supporting some kind of restriction on freedom.

What was interesting to me was the echo I heard of Joe Biden this morning on TW. His concern was that people in the Middle East didn't have the same kind of definition about freedom that we did, and we might not like the kind of freedom they want. He feared that President Bush, naively, thought they did.

I want to be clear, if my subject title failed to be, that the very concept of too many choices is false. Let me start with an example:

It is 10:30pm tonight. You can go to bed and get some sleep; stay up and watch TV, stay up and read; stay up and have some intimate time with a spouse/partner; stay up and play a game; stay up and blog; stay up and eat; go out and party; what you say? too many choices?

Nonsense, the choice is to go to bed or stay awake. If you choose to go to bed, sleep is soon to follow. If you choose not to, then you have other choices.

A second example (one used on me many years ago by someone that wanted to impose limits on the number of cereals available (I kid you not...)

Walking down the cereal aisle there are literally a hundred different choices. No one can reasonably make an informed choice on each one. Therefore, we need to limit the number of cereals to one or two in each category.

I have three criteria for a morning cereal: it has to have sugar already on it (I hate having to add my own); it has to have at least 5 servings (and since I average 10oz each morning, that means more than 50oz) and it has to cost around 10 cents an oz. There are three that meet those criteria, Frosted Flakes, Frosted Cheerios and Kellogg's Raisin Bran. It takes me about 10 minutes a year to verify that nothing has changed in the aisle and those three remain viable choices. On sale, Frosted Mini Wheats and Lucky Charms add some variety.

The first thing I listen to when someone tells me there are too many choices, is what choices I have available to me, they want to limit. This morning, my Pastor wanted us to consider spending a little more money on church campaign items rather than presents to friends and family. We have so many competitors for our dollars, shouldn't we limit the ones that make us feel good, and help those more unfortunate than ourselves? (Didn't like the construction of that sentence? Preferred, "less fortunate". Tough, my choice!)

The problem most people have that complain there are too many choices is they don't like the choices other people are making. Rather than complain about their choices (and in doing so question their freedom to make their own choices), they complain there were too many choices to begin with. If we limit the choices to a few, then more people would choose their choice.

What makes people feel overwhelmed by choices? Lack of purpose. I walk into the cereal aisle with a clear idea of what I am looking for. The vast number of choices fail my criteria on more than one issue. Knowing what I am looking for helps me to make my choices easily.

The money I earn has a specific purpose. Demands on me to spend it a particular way fail to sway me at all because I already know where it is going. Bush chose to deal with Iraq, many on the left offered up "other choices" so as to distract from his purpose. When that failed, the next argument was "too many choices" expressed as "We can't be the world's policeman."

Externally, there can never be too many choices. With 6 billion people on the earth, every option will have some that prefer it. The more choices, the more freedom people have. It is only the lack of will, the lack of purpose that create in people a frustration with the choices available to them. And for others, the cornucopia of choices means less people will join them in their choice, and that freedom isn't the same freedom they wish others to have.

Two Points

What to do when you have a small following and two posts....?

Item 1. John Bolton has resigned (before being fired...hey, that is what it is when you are not renewed...fired). Bush should NOT name a replacement. The argument can be the best person for the job already had it....second best is not appropriate for the first among equals.


Item 2. A civil society. I am tired of the vulgarity that passes for dialogue. On Thursday I was picking up Victoria from a function and a regular participant had an IMPEACH BUSH pin. I tapped it and suggested he needed to do something illegal first. She then pointed to the IMPEACH CHENEY FIRST pin next to it and exclaimed "I was kinda hoping someone would, you know, shoot him on this trip." My response was "That is very rude, and very unChristian of you to desire the murder of someone just because you dislike them."

The reality is that she wasn't kinda hoping...she was PRAYING for it. I listen (not by choice) to comics and their routines are packed with vulgar, profane tirades. People walking down the street, standing in line at the store, lace their conversation with profanity and vulgarity as if it were a sprinkling of powered sugar on feces. (Yes, I was thinking sh**, but am trying to make a point.)

It has become unacceptable to be polite. It has become acceptable to be vulgar in virtually any company or setting. And it should stop.

I am not asking for a "Victorian" purge. Can each of us, as individuals, strive to call out vulgarity when it occurs, state profanity is unacceptable in our conversations with others? Can we not be polite to others? I like, and thank when it happens, a door held open for me. No one has held a chair for me in decades so I don't hold out much hope there!

Last week a Judge told opposing counsel that his actions had disrespected the Court and debtor's counsel (Victoria) and put him on warning that it would not be tolerated. He then imposed fees against him, something he seldom does.

Respect for ourselves, each other and strangers we meet is the first step in a civil society. We must begin to strive for it, or the culture rot we all see clearly will destroy all that we have accomplished.

Green space

I snippet of conversation overheard:

"we are fast running out of greenspace...we need more aggressive action against the developers..."

If Texas had the population density of Manhattan NY, we could fit 17 billion people into Texas. In other words, one state in the United States could hold the entire population of the planet and their children, and probably their children's children.

How much greenspace do we need?

Tracy

Slander? Mistake?

John Kerry has stated:

"If anyone thinks that a veteran, someone like me, who's been fighting my entire career to provide for veterans, to fight for their benefits, to help honor what their service is, if anybody thinks that a veteran would somehow criticize more than 140,000 troops serving in Iraq and not the president and his people who put them there, they're crazy," he said.

Well, I served in the military and I am not stupid Senator. My brother served in the military and he is not stupid. My nephew has served in Iraq and he is not stupid. But apparently the only one that is crazy is you Senator:

"I would like to talk, representing all those veterans, and say that several months ago in Detroit, we had an investigation at which over 150 honorably discharged and many very highly decorated veterans testified to war crimes committed in Southeast Asia, not isolated incidents but crimes committed on a day-to-day basis with the full awareness of officers at all levels of command....

They told the stories at times they had personally raped, cut off ears, cut off heads, taped wires from portable telephones to human genitals and turned up the power, cut off limbs, blown up bodies, randomly shot at civilians, razed villages in fashion reminiscent of Genghis Khan, shot cattle and dogs for fun, poisoned food stocks, and generally ravaged the countryside of South Vietnam in addition to the normal ravage of war, and the normal and very particular ravaging which is done by the applied bombing power of this country.

Our experience is that you will, hand have disparaged the troops fighting in the field.

Apologize for a botched joke. You and your supporters have demanded President Bush admit to a mistake in Iraq and apologize when you can't even do so for a botched joke?

Last call...

We are a week from election day. It is Halloween. At least the scary people I see today will make me smile.

I have addressed this issue twice and I do it here for a final time. I will not vote for any incumbents. And I am asking you to do the same. For most of us here in my home state that means voting for Republicans.


My rep, Tammy Baldwin(D) has been an OK rep. She hasn't done much, hasn't stirred any pots, caused any scandals and apparently been a good person serving in Congress. Her opponent is agoofus . I can't imagine him actually doing any good in Congress. After 6 years, of doing nothing much, it is time to give someone else a chance. Bye Tammy.

One of my senators, Herb Kohl(D) is also one of those non-descript Congress people. Year after year of nothing bad, nothing good...just putting in their time servants. Kohl is rich, doesn't need a lot of money for his campaign. His opponent is so unremarkable, I can't even remember who it is. (The Green candidate I saw on TV for 5 minutes and he should NEVER been allowed to be in public again.) Bye Herb.

Our governor is Jim Doyle(D) and he has been caught dirty. Too bad his challenger, Mark Green (R) has been caught equally dirty. For the first time ever I got called to respond to a poll (on stem cell issues). Basically, I said I was for it, and Green's position was unlikely to change my position. Bye Jim.

There are a couple of other local races but of no national consequence. And that is my problem. The Republican leadership (WH and Congress) have so thoroughly screwed their base that their only mantra right now is "you have to vote for us, or else it isPelosi". How pathetic is that?

IF I had the opportunity to vote on a National basis next week, I would give the Democrats both House and Senate. Virtually every issue the Democrats can cause trouble about, doesn't affect me directly. What happens in Iraq will damage us for decades, will probably cause more attacks on US soil - BUT not here in Wisconsin. Gay marriage, I oppose it (despite being in a lesbian relationship) because I don't believe the State has any business sanctioning a religious union. Democrats have already voted forDOMA so where is the issue there? Supreme Court: I'd rather have a deadlock court (going 5/4 on every decision) than an ideologically pure left or right court.

The only issue nationally for me is tax cuts. With the economy in it's current condition (sick but not showing any major symptoms), Democrats will face opposition to any effort to let the tax cuts end.

Sorry guys, but when someone misbehaves, they must be punished. Anything else sends a message of acceptance, even at some minor level.

The national Republicans have abandoned their base, their principles. Democrats are likely to find having power is not nearly as enjoyable as wanting power. Right now we have a Charlie Brown populace and a Charlie Brown political leadership. I am tired of watching for the Great Pumpkin.

This country NEEDS to get off the f**king fence.

Once more, with enthusiasm!

After extensive comments regarding BARF (to those familiar with the Bankruptcy Reform Act of 2005), a year of dealing with the consequences and reading written judicial opinions thereof, I have had the displeasure of reading analyses by those given a platform by which they can spew their lack of knowledge.

Unfortunately, another such analysis has seen the light of a fog-covered, dreary October morning.

What's our review of BR law on its 1st B-Day

Martin Segal has started his review with this clear point:

Like any new law of such importance, it was controversial and the reviews are mixed. Credit card companies and other business supporters say it has been a success because it reduced allowable debt cancellation under Chapter 7 liquidation bankruptcy and increased the number of debtors who had to repay creditors under a Chapter 13 payment plan.

Ignorance is bliss. Few laws are written and passed in this country that so
completely ignore all the professional opinions of those likely to have to deal with such laws. Professors that teach law, especially bankruptcy law, opposed this abomination by a huge margin. Trustees that would have to implement the law, opposed it almost unanimously. Bankruptcy judges opposed it. NONE of these groups would benefit from the passage of the law, or by it's demise. Strictly on the merits and
the likely consequences was it opposed and that opposition was IGNORED by the Congress and the press.

And given the opinions being written by judges that have to deal with this "law", there have been no mixed reviews, at all.

Of course, one of the preferred outcomes of the enactment was the drastic reduction in bankruptcy filings. And to say it was a success in this regard ignores all the signs and statistics. Filings have already returned to levels seen just 7 or 8 years ago.

Take the number of filings that occurred last year and subtract the average of the
previous two years and you will find almost 700,000 filings that could be attributed to the new law. Those 700,000 filings, assuming they were spread out over a 2006 without the law would have resulted in approximately 1.2m filings. A figure not far below the 1.35 million estimated for 2006 had the 2003-2004 trend continued.

Another "consequence" hoped for, predicted and claimed by the pro-BARF lobby was the reduction in cost to the average American consumer. It was estimated that bankruptcy was adding $400 to every Americans interest burden. Well. With the implementation of the law and the 'vast' reduction in filings....has ANYONE seen a reduction in interest rates by credit lenders???

Opponents argue the law fails consumers for these same reasons. A true evaluation probably lies somewhere in between.

No. And a true evaluation you are not going to get from Mr. Segal.

Formerly, a judge would determine if a case qualified for Chapter 7 based on a petition filed by the debtor asserting insolvency. Now debtors must
qualify their income under a complicated ''means'' income test based on their state's median income level. If they don't qualify, Chapter 13 repayment is required.

Spoken like a true academic. Having never sat through bankruptcy hearings (I'll bet - but hey, I could be wrong, I don't actually KNOW Mr.Segal....wonder if he is friends with Todd Zwyicki?) Mr. Segal doesn't even know how filings are handled. Judges seldom get involved in the vast majority of cases. The trustee assigned the case makes any initial determination that there is an issue regarding the
appropriateness of a filing. And the 'complicated means test' only comes into play when the debtor household earns over the state median income. But we have found that 97% of filers do NOT earn over the state median.

Of course proponents of the law felt judicial discretion was inappropriate and therefore mandated a means test to eliminate any pesky application of ...you know...fairness.

Chapter 13 filers must repay amounts for five years based on stricter IRS living standards. Before a judge set three-year repayment schedules based on what a debtor could reasonably afford to pay.

Mr. Segal compounds his obvious ignorance with a flat out distortion. If 97% of filers do not meet the state median income and chapter 13 filings are about 40% of the filings, then 97% of the chapter 13's are by people that CAN file a chapter 7, are below the state median and DO NOT have to repay for 5 years or use the 'stricter' IRS guidelines. And the ignorance of the "Before a judge set..." is just astounding. Plans were proposed by the debtors and if no one objected, confirmed. In our district and in many others, 80-85% of all cases were routinely confirmed. Those proposed by experienced bankruptcy attorneys were often confirmed at a 95% or
better rate.

Attorneys for debtors can be personally fined for inaccurate filing information in schedules of assets and liabilities.

This is just so false it borders on malpractice...oh wait...Mr. Segal is a legal academic...he doesn't actually PRACTICE law. There are no fines for attorneys. There are however new liability issues for attorneys. If a trustee or creditor makes a motion in the bankruptcy case and it is determined that a debtor provided false information and a court determines a reasonable inquiry by the debtor's attorney should have found the false information, THEN the debtor's attorney is liable for the trustee or creditors expenses including court costs, without limit.

What Mr. Segal and the supporters of this little provision envisioned was debtor attorneys, so used to flagrant abuses of the law and living large, would flee in abject terror of the prospect of such unlimited liability. If a criminal retains an attorney and tells the attorney he is innocent and it is determined that the criminal was in fact guilty - he was caught on tape committing the crime - might some legislator decide that the attorney should be held accountable for the court costs and the legal costs of the state for the trial? Wouldn't a reasonable attorney, upon investigating the information provided by their client, determine his true guilt and force the criminal to a plea....to avoid the litigation?

Don't bother them with details.

Formerly,Chapter 7 homestead exempt property was determined by state law. Florida allowed a ''millionaire's exemption'' of unlimited value even if the property was bought shortly before a bankruptcy filing. Now debtors can only exempt a maximum $125,000 of homestead value if the property was bought within 40 months before filing.

I am not going to spend a lot of time on this. It affects only a couple of states but what is interesting is that it affects retired people more than any other group. How? You see, most retired people sell their paid for homes in the states they lived and worked in for years and then moved to states like...Florida. For whatever reason....say their former employer goes bankrupt and voids the retirement plan....the retirees face bankruptcy. That newly purchased Florida real estate is
no longer protected in bankruptcy...but you didn't hear that possibility in Senate debate...

Before secured auto loan debts were repaid based on the full unpaid loan balance. Now repayments are reduced to actual vehicle value.

If previous points were misleading or distorted, this is a flat out lie. Prior to BARF fair market value was the maximum for auto loan repayment. There was considerable legal wrangling about what was fair market value, but under the new law, if the auto was purchased in the previous 910 days, the full loan must be repaid (or vehicle redeemed/surrendered). If purchased more than 910 days prior to filing, replacement value applies.

So much for the legal analysis....let's get to his analysis of the consequences:

As predicted, the number of Chapter 7 filings has greatly decreased
because of stricter requirements and Chapter 13 filings have correspondingly increased.

There is NO research to indicate that the 'stricter requirements' have caused a
decrease. As indicated above, it is likely that the rush to file prior to the law's enactment had a direct impact on the decline. As 97% of those that have taken credit counseling (and some 40% have not yet filed) qualified for chapter 7, it would seem some other factor(s) have had an impact on the number of filings. Could it have been the 43% increase in the court costs? Could it have been the $100 cost to do credit counseling and credit management mandated by the law? Could it have been the 50 to 100% increase in attorney fees caused by the increased liability, extensive new requirements for documentation and verification? Could it have been the press (and attorneys) that relentlessly pounded home the idea that "you better file now before the law changes" that left a lasting impression of the 'impossibility' for filing now? Nah....

Also, we must note this "...Chapter 13 filings have correspondingly increased." As a percentage of filings, chapter 13s are up. In actual numbers, way below the previous 2003-2004 average. But if 97% of filers qualify for chapter 7, why are 40% of them filing chapter 13? There must be a reason...

Primarily, people file chapter 13 to save an asset such as their home from foreclosure. And lo and behold, nationwide, foreclosures are up 50% this year. Maybe, just maybe, the increase in foreclosures are driving more people to file chapter 13...could be...ya know... (ps, foreclosures are likely to exceed 1 million for the first time ever this year...)

Chapter 7 applicants are permitted to tithe up to 15 percent of their income to charity as an expense. Some suggest this opens a loophole that allows
people who are otherwise over the means income limit to lower their net income under the allowed ceiling and preserve their filing. Many people have done this to stay in Chapter 7.

IF a debtor is below the median, there is no means test and the amount they tithe is basically irrelevant. If they are above the median though, they can't tithe in a chapter 13...per a recent ruling in NY. This so put Senator Hatch, the leading cheerleader of bankruptcy reform, in such a bad place (being from Utah, many, most of his constituents tithe) that he has introduced AN AMENDMENT to the reform. Something he opposed stridently during debate.

Mr. Segal's claim that "Many people have done this.." lacks ANY support. There have been NO studies done yet on such a claim.

Applicants who couldn't technically qualify for Chapter 7 debt liquidation have had some success claiming ''special circumstances'' beyond their
control forced the filing. Hurricane Katrina victims were given this privilege.

I am uncertain where this comes from. I am unaware of any "special circumstances" that prevent above the median income filers from being forced into chapter 13. There have been some allowances made for Katrina victims but I believe they applied to deadlines and documentation requirements. And to suggest ANY privilege was obtained just because a hurricane DESTROYED YOUR HOME AND EMPLOYER...well, there ya go!

New credit counseling requirements, originally thought to be oppressive, have worked fairly well. There are approved agencies that charge reasonable fees of $50 to $100 for the requiredprefiling and post-filing services, and judges can waive payment for lowincome debtors.

Yea, so well. Judges can waive court filing fees for low income debtors (generally only those that are not represented by an attorney - filing pro se - not a good choice given the complexities built into the new law). The agencies can waive their own fees, judges have no say in them....stupid.

The old law allowed a discretionary ''hardship discharge'' to Chapter 13 debtors before their completion of their five-year payment term. They had to prove that income problems were caused by unforeseen difficulties such as job downsizing, illness and accident, and that creditors had already received as much as they would have been paid under Chapter 7. Now many debtors are testing the time limits of early discharge by broadening their claims of payment difficulty.

The law is one year old....how much testing of the time limits do you think could be going on? The average plan pays secured and priority debts in the first years and unsecured debts in later years....plans started this year haven't had a chance to even begin paying ANYTHING towards unsecured debts. And where is the support for his "...many debtors are testing..." claim? WHERE?

Some experts have pointed out an inherent flaw in the current law. Debtors who can't qualify for Chapter 7 because their income is too high may also be
barred from Chapter 13 relief due to its eligibility ceilings of $307,675 for unsecured debts and $922,975 for secured debts. Critics suggest the new law should have either greatly increased or totally eliminated these Chapter 13 limits.

This is just stupid too. We call these clients chapter 11 clients. You know...like Donald Trump...serial filer....practically untouched under the new law. Do you want to waste some time to calculate the approximate percentage of the population with sufficient income to fund a 900,000 mortgage and 300,000 in credit cards? Less than 1 percent? And how many of them have filed this year, 1, 2?

Mr. Segal. No where on your website do you claim any particular knowledge with regard to bankruptcy so maybe you should avoid answering questions outside your legal specialty.

Disclaimer: I am not an attorney and nothing posted here should be considered legal advice. Seek knowledgeable legal counsel if you are considering bankruptcy and take no referrals from Mr. Segal!

Bankruptcy Reform - One year later...

There have been many stories in the press about the anniversary of the bankruptcy reform act and it's impact. In general, the reports are holding to party line. I say that because one of the goals of the reform was to reduce bankruptcy filings and filings are down significantly. Although some are calling the current level "historically low", you need only to go back 7 or 8 years to reach monthly filing levels comparable to the previous quarter.

Let me take some of the talking points and address them specifically.

Significantly lower filing rates. The first goal of the legislation was to reduce the number of bankruptcy filings. I want to offer an analogy: a medical clinic is seeing 1000 patients a month with minor to major wounds. The clinic supporters, faced with increasing costs to serve patients, decide to charge everyone coming in according to their income. Activists complain that will cause some patients to not come to the clinic but supporters claim those that can afford to pay, will pay
their fair share and those that do not will continue to get free or close to free care. After instituting the plan, admissions drop to 600 a month.

Now the question is, did the number of people that got injured drop? Did fewer people get hurt because of the possibility they would have to pay for medical care?

The number of bankruptcy filings in 2004 was lower than 2003. Absent the reform act, it is likely that the trend would have continued. As many supporters of the reform pointed out, the economy was getting better. Assuming a similar drop from 2004 to 2005 as 2003 to 2004, about 1.4 million people would have filed. As about 2.1 million did, we can say that 700,000 people filed either: because get while thegettin was good; or they were going to file anyway and getting in under the old law was a rational choice. Adding 90% of the rush filers to the probable filers in 2006, would have given us about 1 million filers this year, roughly a 30% drop. How
much of that drop could be attributed to different factors will be left up to researchers in the future but let us look at the possibilities:

Fewer people filed bankruptcy in 2006 because:

The law made it more difficult for above median income debtors to file chapter 7

This is the reason most commonly cited by the pro reform groups/supporters. However, it generally fails to acknowledge one fact ignored IN THIS CONTEXT, the number of chapter 13 filers grew by as much as 50%. Why? These are people that are BELOW the median. They, theoretically, can file chapter 7 but CHOOSE to file chapter 13.

The cost to file bankruptcy (regardless of chapter) has increased, pricing many of the most needy out of the ability to file.

This was the reason most opponents gave for opposing the reform act. Attorney fees increased across the board and across the nation. In many areas, attorney fees had been capped by courts and kept at artificially low levels for years. In our area, fees had remained steady for more than 10 years. The increase in documentation requirements and the requirement that attorneys VERIFY AND ATTEST to the accuracy of information provided by the debtor, resulted in courts allowing higher fees. The court costs to file a chapter 7 rose by 43%. The requirement that all debtors take and pay for credit counseling added another $50 to the costs (effectively increasing the filing costs by 67%). For some people, especially the least able to afford it, the court cost increase was/is prohibitive. [Before some moron claims that the very poor can get the fees waived, they should be aware that - in general - a person represented by an attorney that gets ANY fee, is generally NOT able to get the court
costs waived. The court believes if you can afford an attorney, you can afford the court costs, even if the attorney is working for a substantially reduced fee. Given the requirement that attorneys verify and attest to the accuracy of debtor information, such a situation will become very rare, the liability issues alone cause attorneys nightmares.] Finally, many attorneys allowed clients to pay part of
their fee upfront, and the balance after filing. This gave clients relief and although most courts (when presented the issue) denied attorneys the balance of their fees post filing, bankruptcy attorneys took the risk. Under the new law, that risk is unacceptable and very few attorneys (none we know of) provide payment plans, instead requiring the full fee to be paid in advance of filing. The significant increase in attorney fees, the significant increase in court fees and the addition of secondary fees has made filing more expensive for those people most in need of bankruptcy - DESPITE claims by reform supporters that it would not hurt below median filers at all.

The means test will either weed out those that do not really need to file or force them to file chapter 13.

Reports from credit counseling services indicate that 97% of the people taking credit counseling have insufficient income to pay their bills. But only about 60% of those that have taken the counseling have actually filed. Any argument that suggests that those that have not filed after taking credit counseling were potential abusers under the old system and too scared to face the new system ignores the 97% claim. More likely, the people that don't file CAN'T AFFORD TO. Again, if 97% of the people
that take credit counseling can't afford to pay their bills and chapter 13 rates INCREASE, then people are filing chapter 13 despite the fact they will probably fail. In the past, 40% of chapter 13 filers fail to complete their plan. The reasons are many, but chapter 13 budgets are usually very tight (even under the old law) and leave little room for unexpected expenses. Failure rates will take years to determine under the new law, but if the 97% number is accurate, expect failure rates to climb.

So, why would someone with little hope to pay their bills, and below the median income, file chapter 13? And to do so increasingly under the new law?

Chapter 13 is most commonly used for people that wish to retain an asset, such as a home. People facing foreclosure can file chapter 13 and reorganize their debts allowing them to keep their home. When foreclosure rates increase, so do the number of chapter 13 bankruptcy filers. And what has happened to foreclosure rates recently? Up 50% nationwide so far this year. For the first time ever, foreclosures will number over 1 million....historical. The number of chapter 13 filers is increasing because the number of people facing foreclosure is increasing (IMO). Despite the changes in the law, the number of chapter 13 filings is down considerably LESS than chapter 7 filings.


Some words on the law itself (rather than it's consequences). When debated, Todd Zywicki, a primary drafter of the law, sat in front of a Senate committee and claimed the law was just fine, no amendments were needed. After 8 years of trying to get through Congress, the draft bill addressed all the "real" concerns of those opposing it. In action however, the law has left many judges andtrustees frustrated. In a rare display of displeasure, judges around the country are noting their frustration in written opinions. On judge cited Mr.Zywicki's testimony disparagingly. Mr. Zywicki cried foul, but the overwhelming response to his complaint that he had been taken out of context was one of dismissal. Attorneys almost unanimously felt the Judge had not erred. Recently, Senator Hatch offered an amendment to the reform law...apparently, the 'perfect' law had a consequence that hit too close to home for the Senator from Utah (the state with the highest percentage of bankruptcy filers and one of the largest percentage of charitable givers) when a judge ruled that chapter 13 filers could not continue charitable contributions.

Lastly, bankruptcy fraud. One of the chief complaints of pro reform advocates was the claim that 10% of bankruptcy cases included fraud. This percentage was thrown about very often in the debate but NO support for it was ever given. First, let me give you an example of "fraud", hiding assets: A client appeared at a bankruptcy hearing wearing a stud earring. The trustee noted that there was no jewelry listed in the personal property schedule and required the petition be amended to include the stud earring. Value, $5. This was fraud, caught by a trustee, under the old law. REAL bankruptcy fraud is so rare, that when cases were brought, the FBI issued press releases! This year, the Justice Department and the FBI investigated cases in 36 bankruptcy districts and of the 250,000 cases filed, they found 18 with fraud. 18.


How much fraud has occurred?

From 1988-1995: 1474 cases referred, 355 convictions (~7.5 million cases filed)
From 1995-2001: 6090 cases referred, 482 convictions (~7 million cases filed)

14.5 million cases, 7600 cases referred .05% fraud rate. Where oh where did 10% come from? By the way, only 837 convictions came out of those 7600 cases, or .0058%

The most recent report on the 18 cases out of 250,000 filed indicates .072% fraud rate...gee...under the new law, the fraud rate, WENT UP! We'll see what the actual conviction rate is much later.

By every measure, the number of bankruptcy filings is increasing post reform enactment. It may take time to reach previous levels, but there is no doubt it will happen. Reform promised several things: fewer filings - CHECK; more chapter 13's - CHECK; less fraud -OOPPS; continued availability for those most in need - OOPPS; lower credit interest rates for everyone (oh, you didn't hear that claim...sure, it was right there when they said that loose bankruptcy rules were costing everyone $400 a year in extra interest paid, suggesting that everyone would be paying $400 less per year when the law was changed - your interest rates on credit cards and other loans have gone down this year...haven't they?) -OOPPS.

Remember this next time some paper or news station reports that bankruptcy reform has worked, the only ones bankruptcy reform has helped, were the credit card companies that did not report a SINGLE quarter of losses due to the 2.1 million bankruptcy petitions filed last year.

Is there any reason to rehash this?

Those opposed to voting to return the GOP to Congress provide a long
list of failures by the GOP. A failure of leadership both in the
Congress and by the White House.

It is clear that a Democrat
controlled Congress certainly will not address GOP/Conservative
concerns so voting for them as punishment will only make matters worse.

Claiming
that Democrats will make things worse is not a good reason to vote for
Republicans. Ground your teenager to his room and he will be unable to
do hislawnmowing chores. Your punishment to others, hurts you. Classic cutting off your nose to spite your face.

Or is it?

Rewarding
bad behaviour is never an appropriate response. But if the punishment
is likely to cause more problems than continued bad behavior - how do
you stop the bad behavior?

I don't have a good answer to that, but I am sure that grounding the Republicans, isn't it.

Numbness...or short attention span?

A suggestion has been made that Americans are numb to the death and destruction impaled on our psyche daily by the press. Ya think?

In the United States in 2005 there were:
16,927 murders
417,122 robberies
93,934 forcible rapes

Meaning, everyday in the United states there are 46 murders, 1,142 robberies and 257 rapes. Put that next to the droning of how many people were slaughtered in the name of Allah in Baghdad today.

Now, in this country, no matter how "numb" we are to the daily carnage we hope that the criminals are punished and we are saddened for the victims. Ok, not really unless it is close to home, but you can be pretty certain, NO ONE IS CHEERING!

No preacher is standing in front of his flock and telling them to go forth, murdering and raping! (Unless that preacher happens to be MUSLIM...then I am not so sure.)

People are not NUMB to the carnage in Baghdad (and make no mistake, despite the occasional car bomb in Mosul or Basra the main problem is in Baghdad and it's suburbs) they just recognize two minor facts: A larger percentage of the population is actively supporting the carnage; and it is a DAMN WAR ZONE! Duh!?

Bankruptcy Fraud: a review

The Justice Department and the FBI have jointly announced a significant nationwide sweep of bankruptcy fraud criminals.

Yep, you can read how after investigations in 36 districts the sweep netted:

18 cases, and 78 people.

Out of over a quarter million cases.

MAN that new law is great!

A call to dis-arm

I know that I have a small readership, and generally you do not make comments, but I am asking now.

Please leave a comment: agree or disagree (additional comments are welcome)

In passing I have answered the anti-war group that we should recall all military personal, no matter where stationed, home.

I AM NOW MAKING THAT REQUEST. I want every single military member currently assigned to ANY station overseas, returned to US soil within 90 days. From South Korea, from Japan, from the Philippines, from Diego Garcia, from Afghanistan and Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, from Europe, from England, from South and Central America.

Recall however that military troops also guard our embassies and consulates the world over. They are to be returned also. Recall ALL embassy staffs and ambassadors. Given that we are leaving, I expect the world to respond in kind. As some countries may be reluctant, I ask that the creditials of every diplomat currently in the US be revoked. All embassies are to be closed and vacated within 10 days. No asylum will be granted to anyone currently here on diplomatic creditials. Further, as the UN constitutes a 'foreign' presence, it is also to be vacated within 7 days. All foreign nationals on diplomatic work at the UN are to leave within 7 days.

All deployed naval groups are to return to home ports. All deployed air units are to return to their home fields.

Effective immediately, all vessels not under the US flag are to be boarded prior to entry into US navigational waters. All aircraft requesting landing in the US must provide personal information on ALL travelers at least 3 hours prior to DEPARTURE or the planes will be turned away, militarily.

The left has been screaming for this for more than a year. Step up now and support this request.

What's a moderate to do?

Rep. Mark Foley resigned. Too bad he didn't have a democratic PR person on the payroll, it may have helped him keep his seat.

Right now, if I were the democrats (I use the small d to denote all of that particular political persuasion), I'd keep my mouth shut about Foley and what anyone might have known, when. The democrats might not have noticed, but they are standing in the finest of crystal chambers holding big, heavy rocks.

Rep. Mark Foley resigned. Apparently, he has some semblance of character remaining. There are many examples of less notable Democrats.

Just to the right of this post is a little icon RESET. It is a link to my website that suggests we should not be voting for incumbents. Several noted essayists have recently penned that however disgusted we find ourselves with the current Republican majority, having Democrats running Congress (or even half of it) is a far greater potential disaster. I find their arguments compelling. However.

Rep. Mark Foley resigned. I accept that we elect humans to Congress. With all their faults and personal deficiencies. I am however troubled by the unseeminglyness that seems to pervade the very pores of those that have held office for (apparently) more than a few hours. There is a war on and the 'prisoners' we have captured receive better food, medical treatment and personal services than just about every American EXCEPT those in Congress. According to some human rights stupidity, I heard that the significant weight gains experienced by the 'detainees' in Gitmo is "evidence" of their mistreatment. The GOVERNMENT of the United States is fighting a war EXACTLY as the British fought our 'war of independence'. Marching with drums in bright red coats onto a field of battle, all but saying, "shoot ME! Please!"

Rep. Mark Foley resigned. The man charged with finding Osama bin Laden in the CIA a week ago stated: "Richard Clarke, Sandy Berger and President Clinton LIED." And was he pissed when he said it. Mr. Clinton stated the week before that he tried very hard to get bin Laden, but failed. Mr. Clinton was right, he FAILED. He failed to protect US in 1993 at the World Trade Center, in Africa (in Somalia and the embassies), in Yemen and he contributed mightily to 9/11. George Bush Sr failed us in Iraq in 92 and contributed to WTC in 93. Reagan failed us in Beirut. And George Bush Jr has failed us. But Bush Jr will be leaving soon enough, unable to continue his failures. However, Congress has failed in it's duties and has every appearance of continuing to do so. On virtually EVERY topic, our government is failing and spending obscene amounts of money doing it.

Rep. Mark Foley resigned. Not because of 9/11, not because the FBI found $90,000 wrapped in foil in his freezer, not because he has an intern 'service' him in his office, but because of words written on a computer screen.

If Congress and the Administration had ONE OUNCE the integrity of Rep. Mark Foley, they would resign too. I don't expect it and therefore, I continue to support, NO TO INCUMBENTS.