It was once said that the only true way to anticipate someone else's decision, is to know where it is going to be made. Gobbledgook, right?
John McCain has the opportunity to select his Vice Presidential running mate. There is a lot of speculation on who it might be, let me offer my POV.
Polls show that:
1. If Hillary is the dem nominee, 19% of Obama's supporters will go to McCain.
2. If Obama is the dem nominee, 29% of Hillary's supporters will go to McCain.
3. McCain is the GOP nominee inspite of the loss of Evangelicals and Conservatives, arguably the furtherest right of the party.
Even if the dems that do plan on jumping ship were only 25% of the claimed amount. McCain would handily beat either Dem....if he had the 'base' of conservatives and evangelicals. Or does he? Interesting question that I think NO ONE can know the answer to.
But consider this. The Dems have a long and bloody battle for the nomination. All kinds of people are hoping for some 'white knight' to come and save the day...bring the party together. I don't think someone will show up. Unless, you look in a different direction.
For years McCain has been the darling of the media and some on the left as a Republican that will stick it to Republicans. Many dems said that if McCain had been the nominee in 2000, they would have voted for him.
So, if McCain wanted to unite the MIDDLE, the moderate mainstream that is disgusted (or soon will be on the left as is the right) with the extremes of their own party, what better way to do that than to select a running mate, just like him. Someone from the dems side that is a maverick; someone that stands apart from the loony left.
Joe Lieberman fits that bill.
Too many people say that McCain has to pick a conservative to firm up the base. Why? He didn't need it to get the nomination and conventional wisdom has often suggested that a candidate had to appeal to the fringe of his party to get the nomination and then move to the center to win the general. McCain is at the middle already. He doesn't need the 'base' if he can pull 10% of the dems AND most of the independents. What better way to offer the country CHANGE in the way things are done in Washington than to offer a split ticket. I can see him picking up 60% of the vote against either Obama or Hillary. 70% of republicans and 80% of independents and 20% of democrats....works out to...ummmm, winner.