Tuesday, December 30, 2008

Recap and retread

Ok, let the review begin:

On February 1, 2008, I made the following predictions:

  1. The Republican Party is about to get exactly what it wants.
A moderate candidate! Who lost.

Predictions for 2008-2012:

1. The first recession in 26 years will last between 8 and 11 months and cause widespread dislocations specifically in housing

Recession is 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP. Not there yet, but probably did start in the 4th quarter. We'll see. I consider this a hit

2. Ford will declare bankruptcy. As will Citigroup. Both will survive but neither will recover. Four of the top 20 banks will fail or be forced into mergers to survive.

Who could have foreseen a government bailout. Citigroup was all but bankrupty.

Here is the list:
1. Citigroup (New York, N.Y.) $2,199,848
2. Bank of America Corp. (Charlotte, N.C.) 1,743,478
3. J. P. Morgan Chase & Company (Columbus, Ohio) 1,642,862
4. Wachovia Corp. (Charlotte, N.C.) 808,575
5. Taunus Corp. (New York, N.Y.) 750,323
6. Wells Fargo & Company (San Fransisco, Calif.) 595,221
7. HSBC North America Inc. (Prospect Heights, Ill.) 493,010
8. U.S. Bancorp (Minneapolis, Minn.) 241,781
9. Bank of the New York Mellon Corp. (New York, N.Y.) 205,151
10. Suntrust, Inc. (Atlanta, Ga.) 178,986
11. Citizens Financial Group, Inc. (Providence, R.I.) 161,759
12. National City Bank (Cleveland, Ohio) 155,046
13. State Street Corp. (Boston, MA) 154,478
14. Capital One Financial Corp. (McLean, Va.) 150,608
15. Regions Financial Corp. (Birmingham, Ala.) 144,251
16. PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. (Pittsburg, Pa.) 140,026
17. BB&T Corp. (Winston-Salem, N.C.) $136,417
18. TD Bank North, INC. (Portland, Maine) 118,171
19. Fifth Third Bankcorp (Cincinatti, Ohio) 111,396
20. Keycorp (Cleveland, Ohio) 101,596

Pure banks, I lost. However, Washington Mutual and Indymac banks were big failures as were the almost complete loss of investment banks. In green, banks that received Treasury money - some forced upon them. Also, we have some new 'banks'. It was clear that the financial sector was going to get hammered. Again, too big to fail saved some. Mostly a hit, but I can't give myself credit for stating the obvious especially when it didn't play out cleanly.

3. Obama will be sworn in as President in Jan 2009. Hillary and Bill will be divorced in 2010.

Hit on the first, we'll see on the second.

4. A series of 'minor' attacks on American soil (single bombers in crowded places) will focus Obama on terrorism....unfortunately, we will find that several of the bombers were illegals that got visas as part of the comprehensive reform passed and signed in 2009. Obama will seal the border with an overstep that will violate virtually the entire Constitution with the complete support of the American people and Congress.

Still to be seen.

5. The military withdrawal from Iraq begins to resemble a retreat under fire.

Still to be seen.

6. A small nuclear denotation in Iran signals Iran's entry into the nuclear club in early 2011.

Still to be seen - but getting closer

7. Hezbolla attacks Israel from the West Bank, Gaza (with Hamas) and Lebannon using rockets, several of which will be chemical. Israeli government will fail and only the Iran nuclear threat prevents the US from doing anything to help. Assistance from a completely unexpected source keeps the country from falling.

Israel grew a few stones this year and is making Hamas pay, but Hezebolla is gaining strength in the north. I left this open ended so I still have time.

8. Bankruptcies in the US hit 1.5 million in 2009 along with 2.5 million foreclosures.

2007-2008 hit 1.04 million. I feel pretty confident about the bk. Estimates on foreclosures put them at 1.35 so far in 2008. I may miss the foreclosures by about .5 million - however, even 2 million foreclosures is going to hurt a lot. still some time left.

9. The Democrats get a functional majority in the Senate in 2009 (with the help of several RINOs) and complete the hat trick with a functional majority in the House in 2010.

Consider this a hit on the Senate and and still time on the House - however, governing tends to hurt chances for the party in power.

10. A major financial figure will expose one, maybe two flat out lies that the media had been reporting in financial matters that leads to a rout of the dollar on international markets. Only the complicity of the EU in the lie prevents the dollar from ouster as the currency of trade.

Not yet...

11. A chemical introduced into coca in South America spreads into the cocaine trade leading to thousands of deaths and tens of thousands of addicts having serious and permanent medical disabilities that WE will have to support.

Ok, a miss - but it could happen.

12. A version of nationalized Medicare will be expanded to 50 and overs and pre-school aged children.

They are going to give a try....still waiting though.

13. In 2011, after tax cuts that were put into place in 2003 expired, the Federal revenues decline for the first time in almost 40 years.

Time not up.

So, not too bad. How did you do?

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